Monday, October 14, 2013

DA Hynes’ Polling Shows that He’s On Track to Lead Brooklyn GOP-Conservative Ticket

Released Internal Polling Data Indicates Hynes Can Win By Emphasizing that Ken Thompson Has a Connection to Clarence Norman

According to Carl Campanile reporting in the New York Post,  “Veteran Brooklyn DA Charles “Joe” Hynes claims he’s found the magic ingredient to win his uphill battle for re-election: by linking opponent Ken Thompson to corrupt ex-Democratic boss Clarence Norman... [W]hen no party affiliation is mentioned, the survey shows Hynes leading Thompson, 41 percent to 37 percent, with 22 percent undecided. ***  And “when voters are further informed that Thompson’s campaign is supported by Clarence Norman, a corrupt political boss who went to prison, Hynes takes a commanding lead, 44 percent to 29 percent, with 27 percent undecided,” said Paul Swibinski, of Vision Media Political, the Hynes campaign’s pollster...” (See “Hynes’ weapon: opponent’s ‘corruption ties’” by Carl Campanile, 10/13/13, NY Post []).

Internal polls are often criticized because of  modeling the poll and sampling the population so as to maximize the percentages of the contracting candidate. Nonetheless, numbers like those produced by the Hynes campaign show that if certain targeted groups turn out on election day up to the expectations of the Hynes’ Campaign’s pollsters and the campaign can effectively communicate on the issue of “corruption” associated with the Ken Thompson campaign, then DA Hynes can win re-election. It’s all encapsulated in the words of a high insider in the Hynes campaign quoted in the Post article, cited above as follows:  “Hynes campaign director Chapin Fay [said], ‘This poll is good news. This is a path to victory. Corruption is a real issue’.”

Another thing that these numbers indicate is that, even if the Hynes campaign does not attain its goals in messaging or delivering its ideal voter population to the polls on Election Day, it is still likely to far outstrip the rest of the GOP-Conservative Party ticket in Brooklyn, both in its base like Bay Ridge and Marine Park, but also in almost all of the neighborhoods in the rest of Brooklyn as well.


Anonymous said...

Let me get this straight.
Hynes own poll shows with no party affiliation Thompson beats Hynes by 5 points.
That means with party affiliation Thompson wins in a landslide, as Democrats always do.
Exactly where is this "path to victory"?

Anonymous said...

The race for DA is the first county wide competitive race in over half a century. We should emrace the choice.
But the race for Mayor will be a factor in turnout. Lhota is trashing the GOP every chance he gets. I'm not impressed.

Anonymous said...

When this site talks about the Lhota race for mayor, it says having the COnservative Party's line is automatically a death sentence, but when it talks about the Hynes' race for Brooklyn District Attorney, having the same exact conservative line is not considered in the same way. Wouldn't having the Conservative Party endorsement be equally as bad for a district attorney candidate as for one running for mayor?

Galewyn Massey said...


An article that dug into the details of the favorable internal poll released by DA Hynes’ campaign found a few interesting details that might raise questions as well as concerns (See “A Pro-Hynes Poll Says Clarence Norman ‘Wants Revenge’ ” by Azi Paybarah, 10/15/13, This is How New York Works – Capital []).

According to Azi Paybarah’s report, here is a key fact that was not mentioned in the earlier NY Post coverage of the internal Hynes’ poll: “Voters were told Hynes ‘has been the Brooklyn District Attorney for the past 24 years and has always been a Democrat. But he lost the primary election in September and now he is running on the Republican Party line.’ Voters were not told Hynes is also running on the Conservative Party line.” I have often mentioned that Joseph Lhota’s campaign is permanently damaged by its association with the Conservative Party, it might not be unfair to conclude that Hynes’ efforts might be similarly tarnished by a such an affiliation with the Conservatives. However, there are significant differences between Hynes and Lhota, DA Hynes is the incumbent and has had a well-known history as a lifelong Democrat, Lhota is neither of those.

On the key issue of Clarence Norman’s association with the Ken Thompson campaign for DA, Mr. Paybarah implies that there is some reason to question how such association was used in the poll. Paybarah specifically cites as Hynes’ evidence a quote indicating that Hynes’ son had seen Clarence Norman at Ken Thompson’s Headquarters, and then gives a quote from the NY Post about four top Democratic operatives who described Clarence Norman “holding court” at the “Crown Heights Office” – but it appears that is an office that belonged to “Bill Thompson”, upon whose race Clarence Norman was working. Azi Paybarah noted that in the poll, is a very strong accusation against Clarence Norman and the Ken Thompson campaign and the future of the DA’s office: “According to the New York Post, Norman is calling the shots in Kenneth Thompson's campaigns. Charles Hynes says he is forced to run on the Republican line to stop this corrupt political boss from taking control of the Brooklyn District Attorney's office.” The implication is that the voting public will either not know about or will not believe that Clarence Norman had that association with the Ken Thompson campaign; and/or that Norman will have that level of influence over the office of the DA, if Thompson might get elected instead of Mr. Hynes.