With the 2012 Election Results finally calculated, Gatemouth did some analysis — and things don’t look all that good for the Brooklyn GOP State Senators of 2012 in 2013, 2014 and beyond

One main question arises after reading the Gateman’s view of the results for the 2012 State Senate races involving David Storobin and Marty Golden. Do either one of these 2012 State Senators have a real geographic base going forward into 2013 and 2014 ?

First, Gatemouth appears to have made the pronouncement that “The ‘Lord of Bay Ridge Manor’ Is No Longer ‘The Mayor of Bay Ridge’."
[  http://www.r8ny.com/blog/gatemouth/the_lord_of_bay_ridge_manor_is_no_longer_
the_mayor_of_bay_ridge.html ]

Gatemouth’s  analysis of  State Senator Martin Golden’s  successful re-election performance runs like this: “If we add in the 22nd’s portion of the 46th AD, which includes the majority of Bay Ridge, but also includes a large portions of neighboring Dyker Heights, as well as smaller piece of  Greater Bensonhurst, and the 49th, which includes a small piece of Bay Ridge, most of the rest of Dyker Heights and a large piece of Greater Bensonhurst, then the votes in the parts of the district including all of Bay Ridge and most of Dyker Heights was Gounardes 18,235 (48.36%) and Golden 19,456  (51.59%), with 19 votes going to others. ***  To put things in perspective, if one subtracts the likely more Friendly turf (for Golden) encompassed in the 46th and 49th, the likely result is that the one-time Mayor of Bay Ridge either lost his home turf or ran a dead heat there.”

The question that remains unanswered is whether any part of the 22nd SD is so solidly pro-Martin Golden that it is likely to remain so for many more years. According to the Room Eight’s gatesome  pundit, “Marty Golden remains State Senator mostly through courtesy of his strength in places like Gerritsen Beach, Marine Park and Sephardic Gravesend; places nowhere near his supposed home base.” However, Gatemouth takes pains to point out an important bit of demythologizing, “Not only is the magical “Golden Effect” a myth as to other Republicans, it is a myth as to Golden himself. Outside the ADs entirely within Bay Ridge, Golden won the race 33,851 (59.60%) to 22,904 (40.32%) with 44 votes going to others. Outside the areas containing any pieces of Bay Ridge, Golden won 19,128 (65.58%) to 10,008 (34.31%) with 32 votes going to others. And, for now there are a few neighborhoods very near to today’s Bay Ridge, like Dyker Heights (which prior to the placement of the Verrazano Bridge cut contained a large swath that was considered by old-timers to be part of Bay Ridge) where Golden is still golden, but an ethnically appealing candidate in this neighborhood or that might upset the whole apple cart of calculations for  the 22nd SD. So for State Senator Golden no part of his district contains any survey markers with Marty Golden’s name carve into the stone.

Storobin’s run against Simcha Felder had a very stark outcome; and analyzing Storobin’s strength or weakness is not nearly as problematic as his Brooklyn Republican colleague who did win re-election. The grouping of the vote by ADs  strongly suggests that David Storobin has lost his grip on whatever geographic stronghold he might have had in the special election that made him a New York State Senator by a handful of votes over Lew Fidler. According to Gatemouth. “...it should be noted that David Storobin lost every AD here, including those where Russians comprised as much of the electorate as Orthodox Jews.” [  http://www.r8ny.com/blog/gatemouth/the_state_of_the_kugel_2012.html ]

It remains to be seen whether there are any combination of areas where David Storobin can in the near term make a stand and build a base. A good place to start might be to make his strongest AD his own home base by either running himself for the Republican State Committee with a strong female running mate, or putting a pair of strong supporters in there as his State Committee/District Leadership team.