Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Sure the Early Polling for Lhota Looks Bad --- And You Thought It Would Look Good ?

Don't forget where deBlasio's numbers were two months before the Democrat Primary


Wait until Lhota puts up those ads with his son in a full 'Fro hair deal  ---  it'll be better than a revival of  "Hair" and "Two Gentlemen of Verona" (the musical) in the same season  ---  now that would be Koch Brothers' money well spent....

Republicans and Conservatives shouldn't fret. Lhota probably won't lose this by three to one (3x1) come election day. I'm sure it will be closer to two to one (2x1).

The real problem is that early polls and money do come to the party hand in hand....

6 comments:

Galewyn Massey said...

BACKFILL: BAD POLLING WON'T HELP MOVE ANY FENCE STRADDLING DONORS TO THE JOSEPH LHOTA CAUSE

It'll take more than a few mint scented trash bags full of cash to float the Lhota campaign. Clearly the donors who hedge, straddle and just plain like to wait aren't going to be impressed with the WSJ-Marist Poll that buried Republican-Conservative Joe Lhota well below Democrat Bill de Blasio. For a campaign with very little in the way of available cash, these bad polling results couldn't have come a worse time.

"The results [of the Democratic mayoral primary] raise the question of whether the business community will move behind Mr. Lhota, despite his odds in a city with six Democrats for every Republican. Mr. Lhota had raised a total of $2 million as of late August, compared with Mr. de Blasio's $4.4 million. But Mr. de Blasio's tax-and-spend pledges may change that. 'The real estate industry and others in New York have to be noticing Bill de Blasio's rhetoric,' said Republican consultant Bill O'Reilly. "There's no going back to the center from where he is."(See "Fence-sitters key for Joseph Lhota -- It's decision time for donors hesitant to embrace the Republican nominee" by Chris Bragg, 9/15/13, Crain's New York [http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20130915/POLITICS/309159973]). However, according to Mr. Bragg's article in Crains, business interests, whose major campaign contributors, such as the real estate and taxi industries, have real financial stakes in city policy, have wagered by making more cash donations to Mr. de Blasio. One exception is an industrialist who makes mint-scented trash bags and he has put his cash behind Lhota. However, so far for the most part, Mr. Lhota's biggest fundraisers have been former Giuliani administration colleagues.

It's tough to see how Lhota's relatively small numbers will translate into necessary big bucks anytime soon.

Galewyn Massey said...

UPDATE: MORE OF THE SAME --- IN A LATE CAMPAIGN MOVE THAT VETERAN OPERATORS CALLED "UNUSUAL" --- LHOTA'S TEAM SHAKES UP THE FUNDRAISING CREW STARTING WITH WIFEY, TAMRA LHOTA

According to the Daily News, with Lhota trailing in the polls and with campaign cash a problem, the Lhota team is overhauling its fund-raising operation with less than seven weeks before Election Day. The Republican candidate for mayor, Joseph Lhota, is set to hire the NYS Republican Party’s finance director, Jason Weingartner, to head the Lhota campaign's fundraising operation. Tamra Lhota, the candidates's wife, had fundraising experience and had been in charge of Lhota's fund-raising assisted by Tamara Hallisey, a veteran GOP rainmaker (See "Joe Lhota picks new team of rainmakers for New York mayoral campaign" by Celeste Katz & Annie Karni, 9/19/13, NY Daily News [ http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/lhota-picks-new-rainmakers-nyc-mayoral-campaign-article-1.1460538]).

Veteran fund-raisers Tamra Lhota and Tamara Hallisey had brought in some large donations early in the campaign, but Hallisey recently had been phased out, with the hope that Weingartner would be able to pull in the small, local contributions that are necessary to qualify for public matching funds. Although it is expected that Tamra Lhota will continue to be involved in raising money, she will also be spending more time out on the campaign trail with the candidate.

The News article is more than a little suggestive that the Lhota campaign fundraising is a day late and a pound short, and that time is running out. "Campaign veterans not involved in the mayor’s race called the retooling of Lhota’s operation so late in the campaign unusual. *** When it comes to raising big donations and the smaller matchable gifts, “I would suggest both things needed to be happening Day One,” said one consultant unaffiliated with any mayoral candidate. *** Lhota always faced a cash challenge in the heavily Democratic city, but new poll numbers showing he’s far behind Democrat Bill de Blasio will complicate the effort, insiders said."

Anonymous said...

This blog used to be interesting, but with the new writer, the intelligence level decreased considerably.

Galewyn Massey said...

UPDATE: NUMBERS GAME -- LATEST POLL CONFIRMS HUGE DE BLASIO LEAD

"Democrat Bill de Blasio remains far ahead of his Republican challenger, according to the latest poll of the mayor’s race. *** The presumptive Democratic nominee leads his GOP rival Joe Lhota 66 percent to 25 percent, according to the latest Quinnipiac poll released this afternoon.(See "Latest Poll Confirms Huge de Blasio Lead" by Jill Colvin, 9/19/13, NY Observer/Politicker [http://politicker.com/2013/09/latest-poll-confirms-huge-de-blasio-lead/]). Lhota's supporters who might have been hoping the Marist-WSJ Poll was an outrider were sorely disappointed when a Q Poll showed an almost identical three to one (3x1) lead by the presumed Democratic nominee over the GOP-Conservative standard bearer.

JOE LHOTA DISMISSES EARLY POLLS

Another Jill Colvin report in the Politicker indicated that GOP candidate Joseph Lhota was undaunted by the polls showing him far behind. He said that he expected to be the underdog to whomever was nominated by the Democrats.

Galewyn Massey said...

UPDATE: "NYC MAYOR'S RACE A LOSE-LOSE FOR SENATE GOP"

If you are active in the Brooklyn GOP, or even if Kassar's Conservative Party is your favorite cuppa "Rosey," there is an item that you shouldn't miss about the transition from the Bloomberg mayorality to whomever is his successor (See "NYC Mayor’s Race A Lose-Lose For Senate GOP" by Liz Benjamin, 9/20/13, YNN/State of Politics [http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2013/09/nyc-mayors-race-a-lose-lose-for-senate-gop/]).
Whether you favor or oppose the current Skelos-Golden NYS Senate cabal with its coalition allies of the IDC, the passing of Mayor Michael Bloomberg from NYC's City Hall is not something that will improve things for that group -- politically, financially or any "other-ly" that fits.

For my purposes, the most pithy part of LB's article is right in the first few paragraphs, which are quoted herein, as follows: "Much was written last week about the winners and losers of the GOP and Democratic NYC mayoral primary elections. But one group in particular was overlooked for being in the rather unusual position of losing regardless of the outcome of the race to replace Mayor Bloomberg: *** The Senate Republicans. *** The billionaire mayor has been very good to the Senate GOP, sticking with them through thick and through thin, remaining their largest individual donor – by far – and pumping millions into their campaign coffers regardless of whether they’ve been in the majority or (briefly) the minority. *** Bloomberg (a former Democrat himself, let’s not forget) has repeatedly angered the Democrats with his loyalty to the Republicans...."

A little more insight is provided by Ms.Benjamin near the close of the piece: "But the next mayor of New York City, whoever he is, won’t have Bloomberg’s billions. And so, the Senate Republicans will be in search of a new political sugar daddy, and they know it. *** Perhaps that’s what Senate Republican Leader Dean Skelos had in mind when he backed supermarket mogul John Catsimatidis in the mayoral primary. The Cats man was spreading money around GOP committees like crazy, and maybe Skelos thought he could get in on the action. *** But Skelos picked the wrong horse in that race. He has since announced support for the man who defeated Catsimatidis, former MTA Chairman Joe Lhota, who is hardly hurting in the wealth department, but certainly doesn’t have Bloomberg’s billions. *** Polls since the primary show Lhota has a lot of ground to make up if he wants to maintain the GOP’s control streak at City Hall. Even if he manages to somehow eke out a victory against the Democratic candidate, Bill de Blasio, the Senate Republicans might be better off from a policy perspective, but they probably will be hurting in the campaign cash department...."

Galewyn Massey said...

UPDATE: FIRST POST-PRIMARY FILINGS SHOW LHOTA AND DE BLASIO ABOUT EVEN IN FUNDRAISING AND FUNDS ON HAND

The Daily News reports, "He's trailing badly in the polls, but Republican mayoral candidate Joe Lhota has been running neck and neck with Democrat Bill de Blasio in the race for campaign cash. *** The two raised nearly identical amounts of money after they won their parties’ nominations on Sept. 10, campaign finance records released Friday night show. *** From Sept. 11, to the end of the fundraising period on Sept. 16, Lhota reeled in $142,714 while de Blasio collected $147,652, the records reveal. *** The period ended with de Blasio having a bit more cash on hand -- approximately $704,000 in the bank, while Lhota had just under $500,000." ( See "NYC 2013 #FilingDay: Bill de Blasio, Joe Lhota Raised Neck And Neck After Primaries" by Celeste Katz, 9/20/13, Daily News/Daily Politics [http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2013/09/nyc-2013-filingday-a-quick-look-at-your-nyccfb-mayoral-toplines]).

This is like reading tea leaves in a cup. Is being even in anything at this point a good thing for Lhota ? One thing is clear, Lhota is not likely to have any money advantage over de Blasio at any point during this campaign.