After all the Brooklyn Republicans had their day in court, both sides ["all" sides in the 46th AD] will have to go to the Republican Rank & File, and do and say something to make them care enough to vote for the Republican County Committee — whatever that is
Some operatives for the Eatons and for the Goldens will urge that their principals target prime-Republicans with laser dots. Some others who know a thing or two about what’s really happening inside the Brooklyn GOP will argue against this small “money ball” approach. So, who is right and who will influence the top guys and principal parties in interest — Craig and Marty ?
The smart advisers to both men at the tops of their respective groups should be telling each of them that as far as the Republican rank-and-file is concerned, if they notice at all, this will not be seen as a battle between Craig Eaton and Marty Golden — it will be seen as a referendum on State Senator Marty Golden. It will be a referendum conducted only among Republican prime voters; and given that reality, those who spout conventional wisdom might ask, “How can Marty lose ?”
Let me ask the question a different way. How can Marty be sure that he will win a referendum that’s all about him where his name doesn’t even appear on the ballot ? Equally important, what kind of campaign will the Golden crowd be able to mount that certainly will get out all or most of the Golden-leaning voters to vote for Golden’s “Republicans for Change” candidates ? I’m sure that there will be plenty of mail for the County Committee candidates endorsed by Marty Golden. That’s what’s been done in the past in other recent primaries; but that has really worked only some of the time. Since 2010 it’s been about 50/50. What is certain is that in all kinds of races, or to put it another way, ALWAYS, about one-third of Republican prime voters have ignored or rejected Golden’s endorsements or exhortations — in fact, in some areas that anti-Golden Republican vote gets up to 50%. or higher.
Enough about Golden’s problems, for now !
Craig Eaton and some of his top people want to argue that Eaton had been a loyal Golden supporter, who did as well as possible under very tough conditions, and that Golden’s move against Eaton is a very unfair stab in the back. — Too bad, so sad, grow up ! Nobody whose name is not Eaton, Berardelli or Gallo really cares.
Eaton’s personal vilification or justification is almost completely irrelevant to most Brooklyn Republicans ( with the exception of Glenn Nocera on the side of vilification noted). Equally unimportant to the Brooklyn GOP rank-n-file is which cabal of Brooklyn Republican insiders has what hollow titles and illusory powers. So, how does GOP County Leader Craig Eaton and his KCRP organization make a popular appeal and defend itself from this Golden shower in the form of a “Republicans for Change” election challenge ?
One key insider for Eaton & Co. has been urging a campaign of targeted mail that identifies “Republicans for Change” as an alter-ego of the Albany-based Senate Republican Conference that is the last gasp of a failed Dean Skelos-run State Senate, which is holding onto power as part of coalition with Democrats that is committed to the Andrew Cuomo agenda. This attempts to generate a pro-Brooklyn chauvinism against an attack by outsiders. Others close to Eaton want to attack Golden directly in a full-on street campaign with a likely hangover into 2014. It’s anybody’s guess who might win out in that argument.
If both sides decide to play small ball, that should favor Marty G and his side. However, the side that plays the best “money ball” version (micro-targeting and unique messaging) of small ball will do better. Nonetheless, because of the law of entropy, which completely applies in politics (look at the flap over the shredded petitions), no matter how much both sides might want this to be done in a “small ball” manner, it all will get bigger than anybody intends. That almost rises to the level of certainty, because there are enough people out there who actually want this made into a big deal from the get-go.
My prediction is this: both sides will plan their campaigns for the county committee candidates on a very small ball model; and a “money ball”-type strategy will be aimed at that. However, also expect to see a noisy and showy backdrop of villains and phantasms, all being exposed trying to take over the Brooklyn GOP – this will also probably wind up involving the mayoral campaigns of Catsimatidis and Lhota. Bottom line, this whole Eaton-Golden thing will wind up in some kind of free for all, with some targeted mail about the county committee candidates that could easily get lost in all the larger scale shuffling, and all the huffing and puffing to blow the other guy’s house down.
24 comments:
UPDATE & BACKFILL:
APPEARING ELSEWHERE — What a cute bunch of sock-puppets !
There was an interesting post on the “Brooklyn GOP Radio – OFFICIAL– Show Blog” yesterday (See “The Funny Thing About Insurgencies” by Russell Gallo, 7/31/13., Brooklyn GOP Radio –Official– Show Blog [http://brooklyngopradio.blogspot.com/2013/07/the-funny-thing-about-insurgencies.html#comment-form]).
I’m not sure if Mr. Russell Gallo is delivering a veiled threat of a Ba’athist-assisted insurgency inside the Brooklyn GOP if the “Republicans for Change” shock and awe campaign against the Eaton regime succeeds. (It makes my blood run cold thinking-back to the T-34 led attempt at “Regime Change” in the old 49th AD a few years ago. Brrrr.... Ba'athists, now I understand. At least they didn't unleash WMD.) Nonetheless, Gallo does accurately present a sort of case study of unintended consequences of purposeful activity, using Iraq and Operation Iraqi Freedom as his example.
In case you’re thick like me, the comments following Gallo's post make very clear what some people think RG might be up to — or at least what he might be predicting or suggesting.
Bravo Galewyn some more great writing, keep up the good work
RG and the sock-puppets make a point well worth heeding, but we may find a better "case study" a little further back.
L. Paul Bremer studied the US occupation of postwar Germany and Japan very closely before becoming "Governor of Iraq" in 2003. As such, he replicated the first two Allied decrees in 1945 of "de-Nazification" and the abolition of the German army.
These decrees were very successful in '45 because Germany was exhausted and broken. The average German was tired of war and upon seeing that the occupation wasn't so bad, they were happy to see their old leaders rooted out.
That's the more likely scenario with respect to the Brooklyn GOP. Yes, the Eatonians may be willing to fight a "totaler krieg", but if they lose they will be sapped of their power base and resources. The prolonged conflict in Queens (more akin to the Iraq quagmire) has been boosted by the opposition usually having the resources of at least one elected official at their disposal. The Eatonians will have no such advantage. They will not have a geographic stronghold (at least one district), they will not have access to funds, they will not have organization (that an elected can provide), and most of all they will no longer have a soapbox with everyday Brooklyn Republicans. After he is stripped of the title chairman, Eaton becomes an unknown whose calls to keep fighting won't inspire enough R's to fill a Trabant.
If the Goldini are serious and execute their final strikes properly, this fight will end swiftly and there will not be a meaningful long term conflict. If the Eatonians cannot prevent the Goldini from forming a beach head (they already failed vis a vis petitions), they will be defeated "absolutely". It is only a matter of time.
I disagree with you.
Eaton has several things in his favor.
He like Cat Man is humble.
The other thing he has G-d on his side.
We shall see who prevails.
The humble will always prevail over those that lie and use people.
He does have several things in his favor, problem is Golden has several more things in his favor.
There's no second place in politics my friend.
You have some valid points but from where I sit there will not be a single Assembly District in Golden's Senate District that will be with him whether Craig Eaton wins or loses this battle. I call that an eatonian/ more importantly an insurgent beach head.
That aside, the chairman battle this fall will be anything but a landslide for Golden. It will be at best a squeaker and at worst an Eaton rout of the Goldini faction.
Golden will likely face a primary challenge next year and will certainly have to pay people to petition for him. (see paragraph 1)
I have already heard several insiders/insurgents looking to form groups called "Republicans for _______" in the 2014 election cycle. As long as the Dems run someone that isn't insanely liberal they can expect at least passive support from the republican party and possibly public support and endorsements from people with current and/or former official republican party titles.
Oh yeah, and don't think they were taking notes in the Felder/Storobin race for the conservative party line last year. It won't take much to re-register or register new people in certain ADs to have some fun.
Should be:
Oh yeah, and don't think they weren't taking notes in the Felder/Storobin race for the conservative party line last year. It won't take much to re-register or register new people in certain ADs to have some fun.
Well said. However:
1) The AD leaders inclinations are nearly irrelevant. They have very little organization and no tools with which to hurt Golden. They don't even have anything meaningful to withhold, as analysis will show that Golden qualifies himself independently of DL's anyway. Furthermore it is most likely that that ever intransigent class of GOP elites will accept Golden control in short order of the convention. Don't buy their present bluster.
2) Primary challenge? Maybe so, but hardly anything to worry about. It is very difficult to dislodge a state senate Republican in a primary, and usually requires a REAL scandal or ideological betrayal. Golden has neither of those liabilities. Plus, even if he did, he has more than enough personal capital and financial capital to convince GOP primes to keep him. Further, who cares about having to pay people to petition? Both sides engaged in that tactic this year, and any reasonable observer of Brooklyn GOP happenings knows that demographics dictate that all actors will be increasingly forced to pay petitioners every cycle. Only the LaGuardia faction has proven largely immune to this phenomenon due solely to Regina-Potter's relentless efforts.
3) A GOP group for a potential Dem opponent could pose some danger, but again, where on earth will it raise money? Your suggestion is a fallacy because the Dems WILL run a liberal, period. Which GOP donors are going to contribute to a group aimed at helping a liberal Dem beat a dependable Republican? I just don't see your point, sounds like a paper tiger if ever there was one.
4) Finally, take over the Conservative party? The very suggestion is ridiculous. Firstly the method you proposed is illegal, and second basically every single Eaton supporter (including Eaton himself) would have to switch parties in order to have even a chance at pulling that off. That would certainly eliminate Golden's problem with your aforementioned unhappy DL's, and Kassar can just switch parties too and be appointed GOP chairman. Sounds like a plan.
Illegal? Don't think so. Re-registering to another party is illegal now? Convincing others to do the same is against the law? Wake up brother.
No money needs to be raised for a group of republicans to get free press opposing marty. Hit the snooze button again...
Ask Robert DiCarlo about republican primary voters.
And as for signatures, Golden's crew was in a panic last year and that was with several thousand free signatures provided by district leaders.
You can't tip over a soda machine with one push. Got to rock it for a while!
All this back and forth about the Goldini put me in mind of the statue of the Venetian playwright Carlo Goldoni with his cane and prominent three-cornered hat in the Campo San Bartolomeo not far from the Rialto Bridge. For those who can't live without American fast food, there are McDonald's, Burger King and I think a Wendy's right nearby. For others with a taste, there is a complete London-style pub not far in the direction of San Marco. On another route toward San Marco next to the Campo Santa Maria Formosa over a small bridge is my favorite little restaurant in Venice, Ristorante ai Barbacane on Calle del Paradiso.
I've been to Venice a few times, but it's been a while since I was there last. I'd like to go there again, soon.
Not true.
I saw liam knock over pepsi machine Friday night in one shot!
County Committee races. How low can you go?
I'll tell you almost exactly...
The two main groups, Eaton's KCRP organization and Golden's "Republicans for Change," appear to have around 700 County Committee candidates each. Oddly, there are not that many overlaps that will await a resolution in a primary among those, maybe one or two dozen.
There are also over 100 independent Republican candidates for County Committee with only about two dozen running in contested primaries.
Clearly, the battle for CC delegates should run right up to the 2013 Kings County GOP CC Convention in mid- to late- September.
Illegal? Yes! Party raiding is illegal in NYS; if a large number of Republicans switched at about the same time to the same party and all got involved in a Conservative party fight next year, it would clearly count as party raiding. Anything the group tried to accomplish would then be overturned by a judge.
"A Conservative party [sic] fight next year...." why might there be a Conservative Party fight next year ?
If there is a fight, what you describe might be "Party Raiding" --- so might many other things; maybe we'll see soon enough --- it's not "Party Raiding" until a court finds it to be so.
Many things involved in what you call "Party Raiding" might constitute a civil or criminal violation of R.I.C.O. as well; until a court finds it to be so, it's just one person's or side's opinion with almost no facts to back any of it up.
UPDATE: A fly on the wall reports that some of the “Republicans for Change” operatives were apparently quite impressed at the ability of two key KCRP organization worker/killer bees to remove 47 prospective County Committee candidates. That might well be true, but what that fly on the wall didn’t hear was the same RFC operatives scratching their heads about why these KCRP worker/killer bees missed so many easy stings, after they failed to get around an argument about “standing”; especially after the judge in the case had told them how to do it because of an arguable “waiver” of the issue of “standing” in the arguments made by the RFC attorney. The RFC operators also wondered about a “pattern” in the KCRP’s coversheet errors, one of which cost the KCRP organization the ability to go after the evidence in the petition shredding case, which was probably the biggest deal in all the election cases.
Btw, did anybody listen to Justice Schmidt when he said that even though he didn’t get into the petition shredding story in these election cases, there was a way for the worker/killer bees or their beekeeper to get it into court with the right kind of case.
No matter what happens in 2013, this all is a NET loss for Golden who has shown himself to be a greedy, power hungry old man.....he has stabbed his friends in the back repeatedly over the years, but only a few handful of people really know this....ask around Bay Ridge and Dyker...there are many people who have helped him over the years, only to be abused and damaged....this my friend, is why he lost Bay Ridge and in 2014 will have a very tough fight on his hands...unless he cuts a deal like he so often does....ever wonder why Golden never had a decent opponent against him during Vito Lopez's reign as Dem Leader? Deals, Deals, Deals.....look into it
This is getting tiresome !
UPDATE TO MY UPDATE: Last night a brick came through my window with a message attached saying the discussion/argument on the "standing" issue was more complex than my "UPDATE" above indicated.
According to the brick-throwing note-writer, there was an offer/suggestion in court that there be some kind of a mutual waiver of objections to "standing" and/or improper supporting papers and proof of representation [effectively constituting a default] of certain respondents, which had been asserted back and forth by the KCRP organization "representatives" and the RFC "representatives" --- Since the math made it look advantageous for the KCRP organization side to "stand pat" on the exchange of waivers, that's what they chose to do. According to the KCRP's rag-armed chicken-scraller, at stake were about 100 RFC County Committee candidates, who might be ruled off because they had not properly made an appearance before the Court, whereas the cases of only about 30 of those would go to trial over the adequacy of their petitions -- if both sides agreed to waive standing and other related jurisdictional defenses.
I repeat No matter what happens in 2013, this all is a NET loss for Golden who has shown himself to be a greedy, power hungry old man.....he has stabbed his friends in the back repeatedly over the years, but only a few handful of people really know this....ask around Bay Ridge and Dyker. Please you all do understand he is getting old, and you have to learn to forgive, for if you all don't forgive this once proud man who else can and maybe his friend Craig Eaton will forgive him for that is the Christian way and I do know in the end Craig will forgive him for Craig has one think Marty loss over the years and that is compassion. And there are many people who have helped him over the years, only to be abused and damaged. They should forgive him too....this my friend, is why he lost Bay Ridge and in 2014 will have a very tough fight on his hands...unless he cuts a deal like he so often does....ever wonder why Golden never had a decent opponent against him during Vito Lopez's reign as Dem Leader? Deals, Deals, Deals.....look into it. I ask you why should they look into it and if they have been reading all of this they will know you have to learn to forgive and forgot and let this once proud man fade into the sunset for at one time he did do a lot of good but today he is old and he is losing it, so please show this once proud man a little compassion and you all should tell him we understand Marty and the voters will do the rest.
Well said and if you do not forgive it eats you up and makes you say things you later will regret
This is pablum puke....
I prefer my curd and whey with honey and fruit, like they serve it in some Greek diners around town.
Your friend Craig is neither compassionate nor forgiving. Try vindictive and impudent.
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