Some people suddenly think that Andrew Cuomo is going to fold his tent and go off quietly into the night --- especially since Governor Hochul annonced that New York State under-reported its total COVID-19 deaths by 12,000 souls --- but Andy Boy still has some tricks up his sleave, like turning right around and running again for NYS Govermor in 2022
Needless to say, Andrew Coumo pretty much has got to thread a needle for it to work..... However, it's nonetheless possible
Republican-Conservative Lee Zeldin would also need to thread his own needle..... And that too is somewhat possible
A long-time mostly-in/ for-Brooklyn Democrat wag pointed out to me that Kathy Hochul has no real shot, even as a technical "incumbent," because she won't have time to put all her own loyalists in place around NYS in time for the primary, and she is still a Democrat "upstater"; and the last real Democrat "upstater" to be elected Governor of New York was Grover Cleveland from Buffalo, when it was a very big city during another era. Nobody else from upstate New York in either party has really come close during the modern era, unleas you count Hyde Park, Pocantico Hills, or wherever Pataki was from, as "Upstate."
However, that by itself isn't enough for Cuomo's outside shot to work in a Democrat primary --- Cuomo would also need a fourth candidate in the primary race in order for him to beat both of the Democrat women front-runners likely to be running, Kathy Hochul and Tish James. Luckily for Coumo, there is just such a fourth wheel for the Cuomo-mobile --- Jumaane Williams, who is both to the left of Letitia James and from her very own bailiwicks.
According to this full-time wag and sometime Dem cousultant, these are what he sees as the likely result of such a four-way Dem Primary among the early front-runners, if the contest were to be held any time soon (meaning somewhat sooner than the actual time of the 2022 Dem Primary, which in reality is already very soon).
His projected 2022 results for the Democratic Primary for Governor of NYS:
Cuomo 39%
Tish James 28%
Jumaane Williams 21%
Kathy Hochul 12%
Nonetheless, Kathy Hochul can remain very relevant in any Democrat primary field. If Hochul even gets to 20% in a Dem primary, then Cuomo's chances would be greatly reduced, and any surge by either Tish James or Jumaane Williams might well knock Chris's brother Andy off, once and for all.
Now, if things do break for Cuomo in the 2022 Dem primary, then, of course there'd be the November election..... And that's where things could get very interesting for somebody like Lee Zeldin..... Of course, Zeldin would need to weather his own storm in a possible GOP primary against the likes of Rob Astorino, Andrew Giuliani and/or one or two others --- surely, for a Zeldin scenario to work in/for a November 2022 upset, he would need to be the winner of the Republican nomination, with or without a primary.
Now, if things do break for Cuomo in the 2022 Dem primary, then, of course there'd be the November election..... And that's where things could get very interesting for somebody like Lee Zeldin..... Of course, Zeldin would need to weather his own storm in a possible GOP primary against the likes of Rob Astorino, Andrew Giuliani and/or one or two others --- surely, for a Zeldin scenario to work in/for a November 2022 upset, he would need to be the winner of the Republican nomination, with or without a primary.
There are now only four (4) parties in NYS with permanent line status: the Democrats and Republicans, and the "third" party line Conservatives and the Working Families Party. Right now, Tish James looks like a lock to get the WFP line; and Lee Zeldin pretty much has the inside track with the Conservatives --- so the right outcome of both the GOP and the Dem primaries would be critical for both Cuomo and Zeldin.
Opposition to Coumo will remain strong throughout all of the 2022 election cycle, even if he were to be the winner of the Democrat primary, because Tish James would be likely to remain on the ballot as an active WFP candidate for governor. As a result, in November 2022, if Lee Zeldin were to get a total of about 39-or-40%, combined on the Republican and Conservative party lines, he could very likely lead the field, and be the next Governor of New York State; and a November total closer to 44 or 45 percent for Zeldin would almost surely make him a lock as the next Governor of NYS. That's because strong races in November by Cuomo and Tish James would make the likelyhood of either garnering more than 39% or higher in the general election somewhat unlikely, and either Democrats' getting 44% or 45% would be a virtual impossibility.
Opposition to Coumo will remain strong throughout all of the 2022 election cycle, even if he were to be the winner of the Democrat primary, because Tish James would be likely to remain on the ballot as an active WFP candidate for governor. As a result, in November 2022, if Lee Zeldin were to get a total of about 39-or-40%, combined on the Republican and Conservative party lines, he could very likely lead the field, and be the next Governor of New York State; and a November total closer to 44 or 45 percent for Zeldin would almost surely make him a lock as the next Governor of NYS. That's because strong races in November by Cuomo and Tish James would make the likelyhood of either garnering more than 39% or higher in the general election somewhat unlikely, and either Democrats' getting 44% or 45% would be a virtual impossibility.
Obviously, there are plenty "ifs," "ands," or "buts" in this story about the prospects for Cuomo and Zeldin in 2022, but stranger things have happened before; and these are very, very strange times.....
38 comments:
Q: Why would anyone believe Cuomo has a chance?
A: 20 million dollars to start.
This "consultant" sounds like hes working for Tish James. How can anyone trust the opinion of a hired gun?
You are completely misreading the 'upstate'-'downstate' thing. In a fourway race like you described, even in a Democrat primary, the 'upstate' vote will be more than 20 percent. Add that to Kathy Hochul being the first woman Governor of New York State, and I think she could be in it to win it all the way to the finish. Now, if it's Hochul, James and Zeldin in November --- wow, that's the most interesting race since Buckley, Goodell and Ottinger over fifty years ago.
Even if Cuomo wins, he'll not have a majority mandate, and he can be impeached on day one 2023. And if Alessandra Biaggi is elected AG, she'll be pushing for charges against the once and future king Cuomo before her hand cools from her swearing-in.
If Biaggi becomes AG she cant prosecute anyone without a referral from the Governor. I doubt Cuomo will do that. The Assembly wouldnt impeach him now so why would they do it if hes elected?
Keep dreaming Gale. No GOP will ever be elected again in NY.
RESPONSE: THE "FYI" EDITION
TO: "ANONYMOUS SAID... AT 10:27 AM"
OUR DEM "WAG" AND SOMETIME "CONSULTANT" HAS ASSURED ME THAT >>> AT THIS TIME <<< HE HAS NO DOG IN THIS FIGHT --- RIGHT, LEFT OR DOWN-THE-MIDDLE --- BUT HE ALSO SAID HE'LL TAKE A PAYING JOB OR EVEN ONE WITH SIGNIFICANT FUTURE CONSIDERATION FOR ANY OF THE PEOPLE MENTIONED --- DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN, RIGHT, LEFT OR DOWN-THE-MIDDLE
Who could possibly be that crass and mercenary ??? Only a few true "wags"; but, probably anybody who is seriously in the pack jackals called "consultants".....
Bob should be in Kabul. Lots of mopping up needed.
Gail, I know that your source mentioned how important "Craig" is in all of this. So, why didn't you mention the key role "Craig" might play in all of this?
Hochul from Erie County, which i never heard of till yesterday, is not getting anything close to 20%. Who does she think she is Grover Cleveland?
Lee Zeldin couldnt get elected Governor of West Virginia. Andrew Guliani is our best shot.
After listening to President Biden speak today all of a sudden Jimmy Carter seems like the good ole days.
RESPONSE: THE "OH YES,'CRAIG'!" EDITION
TO: "ANONYMOUS SAID... AT 11:20 AM"
WELL PLAYED, FINE SIR !!! YOUR MENTION OF "CRAIG" FORCED MY HAND, SINCE MOST OF OUR READERS MIGHT WELL ASSUME THAT YOUR REFERENCE TO "CRAIG" WOULD MEAN "CRAIG EATON"
BUT YOU AND I BOTH KNOW VERY WELL THAT YOU WERE REFERRING TO "CRAIG APPLE" --- THE SHERIFF OF ALBANY COUNTY.....
Any hope that Andrew Cuomo might have could very well hinge on whatever "magic" Craig Apple can perform on Cuomo's principal accuser --- if she breaks down as a credible witness, the case against Coumo mostly becomes a nothing-burger.
Gov Hochul had a press conference today announcing the Cuomo administration concealed an additional 12,000 nursing home deaths.
Wasn't Hochul part of the Cuomo administration?
After listening to Governor Hochul speak all of a sudden Andrew Cuomo seemed like the good old days.
Curtis raised 550k and only has 17k. What did he spend it on? Cat food.
Can't believe Hochul passed over Liam for Lieutenant Governor
Hochul didn't want to risk having a urine stained carpet. There are some things that people hear about and never forget.
Brian Fox latest fundraising numbers are not pretty. The only person winning here are Liam and David Storobin. 75% of Brian's paltry money is going to Liam and his "consulting firm"
clean up on aisle 3
There are some people who lose primaries and never get over it.
A closer look under the hood of Brian Fox's money shows 8:57 AM is correct. Fox is sending out far more money than he is taking in. Liam and "The November Group" are getting P-A-I-D. Fox is a cash cow for Liam and Proud
I appreciate Brian Fox postponing all of his fundraisers With everyone’s safety in mind
RESPONSE: THE " 'GOOD OLD DAYS' THEME" EDITION
TO THOSE THAT MIGHT THINK THE RULES HAVE CHANGED --- WE LET IN THE "URINE...CARPET" AND "CLEAN UP ON AISLE 3" COMMENTS BECAUSE WE HAD OBSERVED SEVERAL OF THE "GOOD OLD DAYS..." COMMENTS --- SO WE ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF "OPEN PERIOD" FOR A COUPLE OF BANNED PHRASES FROM THE "GOOD OLD DAYS" AFTER THE 2017 ELECTION YEAR --- ONE CLEARLY ANTI-BOB AND THE OTHER ANTI-LIAM
Things have not gone well for all three of the Three Amigos who ran in the 2017 GOP primary for City Council aince that primary. So, it's understandable why they might remain fixated on that political moment. It's up to everybody else to give them a "Moonstruck" slap up the side of their heads and tell them >>> "Get over it !!!"
All of that said, the bans on comments mentioning "urine... carpet [or rug]" or "... cleanup on aisle 3 [or any other aisle]" are still in full force and effect. Also don't lose sight of the donut for the hole, those "good old days" resulted in just another of a long line of GOP losses that more or less leaves us with Brian Fox as our "Great White Hope" or do I have him mixed up with "Moby Dick".....
Q is forgotten
Has Quaglione ever told the story about how his mom gave him $300,000 to buy a house and instead he spent it on his district leader race and nearly lost ?
That sure sounds like a phony story that sonebody other than Quaglione might tell.
Hey, nobody mentioned that Chung Dick was pitching Moby Dick for the City Council to the Asian community.
1:56 Pm
Do tell us more. you've piqued my interest
I watch the video clip of Dung Dick introducing Brian Fox to the community center and I had one of my students translated it. Chung Dick calls Brian Fox "the big baked potato" and I couldn't agree more
Has Bob ever told the story about his mom giving him $300 to buy heineken?
$300,000 to win a district leader race against an 80 year old man ?????
Billionaire rapper and fashion designer Kanye will now officially be known as “Ye”
Boorish schmuck Republican nominee for City Councilor Brian Fox will now officially be known as “Ox”
Bob has really fallen. If he behaves in 10 years Ted will let him be on the county committee.
Has Liam ever told the story on how his mother in law gives him free room and board on 6th Avenue
The Quaglione stuff about the $300K looks like completely made up very fake news.
Q spent 300k easy in that district leader race
We know John Q reads this blog and comments all the time. Can he confirm or deny if he actually spent $300,000 on his district leader race against big bad bob casara?
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