Monday, April 17, 2017

Is Tomorrow’s Georgia Special Election a Precursor of the 2017 Primary and General Election in one of Brooklyn’s City Council Districts


Nate Silver indicates that the Georgia result tomorrow is likely to be inconclusive  ---  BUT  ---  Silver’s Georgia tea leaves might be predictive of how things might go in Southwest Brooklyn come September & November

 

According to Nate Silver’s most recent look at tomorrow’s special election in Georgia,   “If the polls are right, then Democrat Jon Ossoff will receive by far the most votes in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, which is holding a special election to replace former U.S. Rep. Tom Price on Tuesday.  But Ossoff will probably finish with less than 50 percent of the vote, which would trigger a runoff between him and the next-highest finisher — most likely the Republican Karen Handel, but possibly one of three other Republicans (Bob Gray, Dan Moody Judson Hill) who are closely bunched behind her in polls….   Furthermore, the combined vote for all Republican candidates will probably exceed the combined vote for Ossoff and other Democrats, although it should be close. And the district has historically been Republican-leaning, although it was much less so in the 2016 election than it had been previously. All of this makes for a fairly confusing set of circumstances and a hard-to-forecast outcome….”  (See  “Handicapping The Georgia 6 Special Election”  by Nate Silver,  4/17/17,  FiveThirtyEight   [https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/handicapping-the-georgia-6-special-election/]).

WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH WHO GETS TO BE THE “TOP BANANA” OUT OF A BUNCH THAT IN MID-APRIL INCLUDES:  BRANNAN,  ABBATE,  EL YATEEM, TONG, CARROLL, CAPANO, MC CABE  &  QUAGLIONE ? ? ?

Maybe, tomorrow’s vote in Georgia will be more conclusive about what will happen in Bay Ridge, Bensonhurst and Bath Beach,  Brooklyn, in November than who actually will be the replacement in congress for HHS Secretary Tom Price after tomorrow…..    When you get into the guts of the Nate Silver analysis,  you’ll see that the Georgia 6th Congressional District is one of those Red-turning-to-Purple districts that very likely will stay in the Republican herd after all is said and done…..   Also you’ll see that getting into the guts of anything with Nate Silver will very quickly will get you out into the weeds of polling,  statistics and regression, both mathematical and psychological…..

Nonetheless,   this much is very plain and easy to see:   the Georgia 6th is much more  “REPUBLICAN” than the 43rd NYC Council District in Brooklyn…..  So, if the by far leading Democrat,  Jon Ossoff,  wins by obtaining 50+ percent of the vote tomorrow,  it will be very likely that 2017 is going to be a very bad year for Republicans everywhere,  and that includes in the Brooklyn-NYCC 43rd.   If Ossoff gets significantly below his lowest polling-projection of 41% (still a number well ahead of the rest of the pack),   the  picture for Democrats going forward is bleak,   both in the Georgia 6h and elsewhere.   More generally,  anything that Nate Silver says is a good indicator for Ossoff;   just take the opposite as a good indicator for the top Republican vote-getter in the Georgia 6th Cong. Dist.   Even more generally,  the same is true about Republicans running in 2017 outside of the Georgia 6th,  but to a somewhat lesser extent of accuracy and over-all predictability.

Silver sees Ossoff getting somewhere BETWEEN the low-polling number of 41%  and a winning number of 50+%.....  That means the prediction o a run-off in the Georgia 6th.  And that’s where Silver takes a real deep dive into the weeds.    Nonetheless,  a very important number and easy to see number is the aggregate Republican vote compared to the aggregate Dem vote.   If the Republicans hover around 50%  (and, heaven forbid, fall below it even a tiny bit),  that’s good for Ossoff and the Democrats  ---  if the aggregate Democrat vote is below 45%,  then that’s bleak for Ossoff and the Dems.

Here’s something that Silver said near the end of his column  ---  perhaps as important as all of that number crunching,  the overall Democrat-Republican bias in the district might skew any result on the final [run-off] election day.  As a result, even a very strong performance for Ossoff and the Democrats might not indicate a lot about the following  run-off, even if it very closely falls short of the 50+% needed to win on the first election day.

A similar fate might await any final GOP candidate running against any final Democratic Party candidate for the City Council in the 43rd Counc. Dist.   First,  it is not likely that any Democrat running in  the 43rd Council District primary is likely to be as prohibitive a favorite as Jon Ossoff appears to be in Georgia's 6th Congressional District,  nor will they sweep the Democrat City Council  field on Primary Day by any ratio close to 40+%  to 1%, 2%  or  3%.....   On the other hand, even if one of the GOP’s Three Caballeros beats the other two like a pair of balky mules,  there just might not be enough Republican and Conservative leaning folks to pull out in November so as to win in the general election,  even if the ultimate Democrat candidate is an absolute "Black Swan" phenom with a name like Nancy Tong or Khader El-Yateem.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

If Ossoff comes in above 50% tomorrow a lot of things will change

Anonymous said...

Galewyn, there are no surprises coming out of the Republican Party in 2017, unless it's that none of the Republican candidates for City Council from Bay Ridge files enough valid signatures, making the Republican Line a blank.

Bay Ridge is changing at the speed of light in ways that any of the old Bay Ridge hands wouldn't have a clue about.

Rev. Khader El-Yateem will bring in lots of younger more progressive voters and others from the establishment hard left to go along with his own growing base of Arab identity voters.

Anonymous said...

Gail, your trying too hard comparing the Georgia special election and possible runoff to the City Council primary and general for Gentile's spot.

Galewyn Massey said...

RESPONSE: THE "NO DIFFFEECKULTT --- EEEASSSY ! ! !" EDITION

TO: "ANONYMOUS SAID... 8:55 PM"

READING THE NATE SILVER ARTICLE WAS RELATIVELY HARD COMPARED TO MAKING MY COMPARISON BETWEEN THE GEORGIA 6TH CD AND THE BROOKLYN 43RD NYCCD, WHICH AS I WROTE ABOVE WAS RELATIVELY "... EEEASSSY..." (rhymes with Francis of Assisi)

Some of my reader-followers, and even most of my regular "... Irregulars" take this stuff altogether too seriously.

Galewyn Massey said...

UPDATE: THE "11:00 PM" EDITION

JON OSSOFF IS WAY AHEAD OF THE FIELD IN THE GEORGIA 6TH CD ELECTION.....

BUT HE WAS FURTHER AHEAD EARLIER; AND NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LESS THAN A 50/50 DEAL THAT HE BREAKS THE 50+% THRESHOLD TO WIN IT ALL TONIGHT.....


More info when it comes in.

Galewyn Massey said...

UPDATE: THE "12:00 MIDNIGHT" EDITION

JON OSSOFF --- "REGARDLESS HOW [THE FINAL COUNT] COMES OUT TONIGHT... WE HAVE ALREADY WON A VICTORY FOR THE AGES..."

AND CNN PROJECTED A RUN-OFF BETWEEN DEMOCRAT JON OSSOFF AND REPUBLICAN KAREN HANDEL


As vote totals continued to come in near Midnight -- Ossoff's percentage had fallen below 50%: and the NY TIMES totals were "... Jon Ossoff... Dem... 88,562... 48.6% --- Karen Handel... Rep... 35,502... 19.5%..." [with 84% of the precincts reporting].

At about 12:07 PM, CNN reported similar numbers with 95% of the districts reporting.

Galewyn Massey said...

UPDATE: THE "SPIN ZONE" EDITION

THE "FIRST ROUND" OF THE GEORGIA SPECIAL ELECTION TO FILL THE CONGRESSIONAL SEAT OF HHS SECRETARY TOM PRICE, A REPUBLICAN, GAVE ALL SIDES SOMETHING TO CROW ABOUT --- AND EQUALLY IMPORTANT, >>>TO SPIN IT<<< TO FIT THEIR PET NARRATIVE(S)

MOST REPUBLICANS ARE CALLING THIS A WAKE-UP CALL, BUT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS SPINNING IT AS A "VICTORY" --- BUT SO ARE MOST OF THE DEMOCRATS


That's what happens when a candidate, like Jon Ossoff, goes into the last few days looking like a winner..... Last night was a lot like Election Night 2016, with the Democrats looking like clear winners early and the GOP chipping away, chipping away, chipping away as the numbers kept coming in....

Trump's Tweets were definitely "punching down" by the President; however, maybe they were part of what it took to hold off an outright Ossoff victory last night. As it was, Ossoff attained an "almost" outright win with 48.1%; and his nearest GOP opponent, Karen Handel, had only 19.8%.

So, on the day after both sides can probably make good arguments how their side won.

If what Nate Silver had to say in his last pre-election article (cited above in my post) is to be completely credited --- Handel is likely to win the June 20th run-off and Ossoff is likely to lose, but it is very close to a 50/50 deal in the run-off.

Here're the NY Times' numbers for yesterday's top vote-getters in the Ga. 6th Cong. Dist.:
"... Ossoff... Dem.... 92,390... 48.1%
Karen Handel... Rep.... 37,993... 19.8
Bob Gray... Rep.... 20,755... 10.8
Dan Moody... Rep.... 16,994.. 8.8
Judson Hill... Rep.... 16,848 8.8
Others... .... 7,104 3.7

100% reporting (210 of 210 precincts)"