All of the Republican campaigns appear to be slowly gearing up for what is clearly going to be an uphill fight to wrest control of the 43rd Council District from the Democrats --- how much time do these guys think that they have
As of this moment, the three GOP candidates are facing a
three-way primary contest with nobody clearly ahead in ALL relevant metrics for
a successful, victorious end to such primary campaign --- and the victor in that GOP Primary then has to start-up all over again --- against a tough Democrat opponent
My eyeball estimates of the first fund raising events of the three announced Republican candidates for the City Council for Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights and some surrounding areas have been confirmed by the candidates own photo arrays and statement --- at about 150-200 for Bob Capano, 65-75 for Will/Liam McCabe and taking the role as anchor-man John Quaglione at 45-50.
Those attendance figures are only a single metric in determining the early effectiveness of a campaign. However, by that metric Bob Capano is at least a little bit ahead and Liam McCabe has shown that he is a real candidate, with real support and that he is ready to rumble, right now. And, based on his small crowd in a small room near the end of 4th Avenue, it looks like one of John Quaglione’s main arguments, raised at the Bridgeview Diner last week, has been blown out of the water (of course several of his side’s points were put into doubt, but one does stand out). Maybe, just maybe, Mr. McCabe and Congressman D should ask for a new meeting with Golden and Quags --- this time with Mr. Mack armed and ready for the mano a mano with whomever thinks they can put him down in any redux of a similar meeting.
WHEN IT COMES TO $$$$$ CAN ANY OF THESE GUYS BEAT OR EVEN CATCH UP TO BRANNAN ? ? ?
As a concerned Republican, I have a very important question that needs to be asked at this point in time; and it needs to be answered in due course before we get much deeper into a probable Republican primary bloodbath. --- Will the combined fund raising by all three GOP candidates for the NY City Council, as reflected in their upcoming filings, equal or even come close to what has been done by Democrat Justin Brannan ? ? ? ( >>> BTW, you can completely forget anything at all by way of comparison to the cash-on-hand, without matching funds, in the coffers of Peter Abbate)
REMEMBER, FUND RAISING IS ONLY ONE METRIC OF A GOOD CAMPAIGN
The star power of Bob Capano’s guests seemed to glitter a little more than those who turned up for Will/Liam; but, I do have to give kudos to the Balto-boy’s quick roll-out of his endorsement by the local Republican Congressman, early on the “day after” McCabe’s pretty big night.
This points to where the McCabe campaign might have an edge --- professionalism. Except for one featured speaker (who for some bizarre reason thought it was a good idea to revel about being charged with Neo-Nazi and Putin connections), everything else about the McCabe campaign bash seemed quite professional.
The McCabe function was on time, on track and headed in the right direction. Not only were there a raft of Republican and Conservative Party leaders in the house, their photos were quickly posted with “their candidate” Will/Liam McCabe (to be fair Bob Capano did the same with his “leaders and luminaries” a week ago). Only John (the cheese stands alone) Quaglione posted a slideshow and a streaming video with virtually no recognizable notables (JQ's speech alluded to State Senator Golden's not being able to attend, implying that he would if he could --- unless he had just washed his hair). It also needs to be pointed out that McCabe’s high quality HD, professional photography presented his affair in a much better light (and with better picture quality) than his two GOP counterparts, who to all appearances seem to have relied on amateur cell phone and/or I-pad technology .
GOP CANDIDATES ALL NEED TO BE THINKING STRATEGICALLY AND PLANNING TACTICALLY
There will be an eventual winner of the GOP nomination. That GOP candidate had better have the Conservative Party line if they hope to win…..
I don’t KNOW, because we don’t talk anymore, but it does look like the NYSCP folks seem to have given an inside track there to Will/Liam McCabe. Please, note well that I did say, “DOES LOOK LIKE”; and remember, sometimes, looks CAN be deceiving. Neither Bob Capano nor John Quaglione can beat any Democrat in November 2017 without having the Conservative Party line --- both need a plausible route to get it.
All that having been said, there really isn’t a lot of time between now and the heavy-lifting events like party endorsements, petitioning and petition challenges. It remains to be seen what kind of organization and apparatus each of these GOP guys will have up and running for those body-and-soul-trying ordeals. An early tip-off on some of that might be who wins the battle to line-up the top consultants and sharpest election attorneys.
Also, don’t forget that lurking out there somewhere are the likes of Pater Abbate, Justin Brannan and Kevin Peter Carroll, all of whom should be capable of succeeding in a tough Democrat Primary and still coming on strong in November against any one of these probably exhausted Republicans.