Republican Candidate for Governor needs a perfect storm -- sort of like James Buckley in 1970 or D'Amato in 1980
Will a Zephyr Teachout primary against Governor Andrew Cuomo be something to talk about for a generation
Governor's Attorney, Martin Connor, promises an appeal of Brooklyn Supreme Court ruling putting Teachout on the Democrat Primary line for Governor against Cuomo
In this year of the Tea Party primary take out of Eric Cantor, in a completely different state where a massive liberal independent-minded city vote can swing a primary and/or a general election, and where incumbents have lost primaries in the past: John Lindsay to John Marchi; Jacob Javits to Alphonse D'Amato; Paul O'Dwyer to Carol Bellamy; Emanuel Cellar to Elizabeth Holtzman, and Stanley Steingut to Helene Weinstein. Also it is where third parties have elected citywide and statewide officials. Given all that, the portends are there for an anything-can-happen year in New York State.
According to the New York Times, even though Zephyr Teachout has made it onto the ballot, she is unlikely to win in the Democratic Primary, because her political appeal is largely to unsatisfied liberal voters in the primary (See "Cuomo Primary Opponent Can Run, a State Judge Rules" by Thomas Kaplan, 8/11/14, NY Times [http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/nyregion/cuomo-primary-opponent-can-run-judge-rules.html?ref=nyregion&_r=0]). The Times' analysis is simple and apparent. "Although her candidacy has generated some interest among liberal activists, Ms. Teachout is not well known across the state. As of last week, she had $181,000 in her campaign account; Mr. Cuomo had $32 million." However, even Timesman Thomas Kaplan notes that "a strong showing in the primary by Ms. Teachout, a law professor who is appealing to liberals who have been vocal about their frustration with Mr. Cuomo on a variety of issues, could prove embarrassing to the governor."
Another matter reported-on in Mr. Kaplan's piece involves the still pending case between Governor Cuomo and challenger Zephyr Teachout. According to Kaplan's report on the court case, "A lawyer for Mr. Cuomo’s campaign, Martin E. Connor, said on Monday that the governor’s team would appeal the ruling...."
A local Brooklyn Democrat wag sees it all completely different. The Democratic Primary voters are all going to be dissatisfied about something. That's not a group that is likely to vote for any incumbent, but with the Moreland scandals likely to be still in the news, there will be a bigger and bigger anti-Cuomo vote. Ask yourself this, he said, "Who do you know who wants to vote for Andrew Cuomo ?"
The same Times reporter cited above, also thinks very little of the chances of Repubican Rob Astorino (See "Despite Criticism, Cuomo Holds Wide Lead Over Republican Challenger, Poll Finds" by Thomas Kaplan, 8/11/14, NY Times [http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/nyregion/despite-criticism-cuomo-holds-wide-lead-over-republican-challenger-poll-finds.html? rref=nyregion&module=Ribbon&version=context®ion=Header&action=click&contentCollection=N.Y.%20%2F%20Region&pgtype=article]). Based upon recent polling reported in the Times, "Mr. Cuomo was viewed favorably by 57 percent of likely voters, the poll found, and 58 percent said they would vote to re-elect him, compared with 26 percent for his Republican challenger, Rob Astorino, the Westchester County executive."
In the off chance that Ms. Teachout wins the primary and becomes the nominee of the Democrats for Governor, we would be faced with a statewide three-way race like Buckley-Goodell-Ottinger in 1970 or D'Amato-Javits-Holtzman in 1980. Both of those races involved two progressive-liberals against a lone conservative candidate. If the 2014 general election pits Astorino against Teachout, and Cuomo running on a few third party lines, the same kind of dynamic would be in play.
If Teachout were to win her Democratic Primary against the incumbent. Andrew Cuomo, she would be in and to this generation what earlier notable Democrat women had been --- Brooklyn-based women progressives, people like Liz Holtzman, Carol Bellamy and Helene Weinstein, each of whom defeated older-line entrenched Democrat male leaders.
Oddly, conservative Republican Rob Astorino's best hope for an upset in November rests upon the success or failure of a liberal-progressive woman Democrat, like Zephyr Teachout.
4 comments:
Cuomo is appealing to the centrist democrats who support big business. That group makkes up about 3% of the vote in democratic primary.
Teachout will win the primary, the election in November is less predictable.
Buckley, Goodell, Marchi and all the rest are great examples from the last century. Actually, the middle of the last century.
Paul O'Dwyer & Carol Bellamy. it was a very good year
UPDATE: THE "MAYBE, THIS TIME THE NEW YORK TIMES GOT SOME OF THE LOCAL POLITICS RIGHT" EDITION
NY TIMES EDITORS WERE APPARENTLY READY TO ASK THIS QUESTION AT THIS TIME: "IS [GOVERNOR CUOMO] MORE NERVOUS ABOUT WINNING A SECOND TERM THAT HE WOULD LIKE TO APPEAR [?]"
MAYBE THE CUOMOS AND THEIR POLITICAL ALLIES ACROSS THE STATE OF NEW YORK NEED TO GIRD THEIR LOINS FOR A REAL PRIMARY BATTLE --- OR ELSE SUFFER THE SAME FATE AS THEIR COMRADE IN ARMS, FORMER BROOKLYN DA CHARLES "JOE" HYNES, WHO LOST A SIMILAR LOOKING PRIMARY IN 2013
The Times Editorial Board quickly jumped on the fact that a Brooklyn Supreme Court Justice had put the progressive Democratic gubernatorial candidate Zephyr Teachout on the ballot for the September Democratic Party Primary with this editorial opinion:
"New York State voters rarely have enough real choice on their ballots, and Gov. Andrew Cuomo seems determined to keep it that way. Ever since another Democratic candidate for governor, Zephyr Teachout, arose on his left, Mr. Cuomo has tried to throw her off the primary ballot on the shaky grounds that she hasn’t met the state’s five-year residency requirement. *** On Monday, a Brooklyn judge tossed that argument out of court, ruling that Ms. Teachout is perfectly qualified to be on the Democratic primary ballot on Sept. 9. But Mr. Cuomo, true to form, won’t back down. His aides immediately promised an appeal of the ruling. That is political bullying, and the governor should back off and engage with Ms. Teachout as a serious candidate. Doing otherwise suggests he is more nervous about winning a second term than he would like to appear...." (See "A Teachout Moment - Gov. Cuomo Should Welcome Zephyr Teachout" by The Editorial Board, 8/11/14 [A version of this editorial appeared in print on August 12, 2014, on page A20 of the New York edition with the headline: "A Teachout Moment"], NY Times/ Editorial [http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/opinion/gov-cuomo-should-welcome-zephyr-teachout.html?_r=0]).
The editorial had much more to say, like this: "...Although Mr. Cuomo is leagues ahead in the polls and has a $32.5 million bankroll, he should not dismiss Ms. Teachout and her growing number of followers as irritants. Her criticisms are mostly legitimate, and he should defend his first term in a series of robust debates with her in the weeks before the primary, rather than through the timidity of litigation...." However, under the circumstances, a line like this might have been gilding the lily: "Governor Cuomo should welcome her to the fray."
A better piece of advice oddly comes from a Bay Ridge-ish gadfly, who has been crusading to tie the fallen DA, Charles "Joe" Hynes and several of Hynes' operators to Governor Cuomo and his dad, the former Governor. That long time Democrat troublemaker, thinks that looking at early polling before the opposition actually engages is exactly what Hynes did last year, and that by by broadly dismissing the current DA Kenneth Thompson as being completely unsuitable for the job, instead of going all out in the various liberal-progressive strongholds and demonstrating why liberals and progressives should have been voting for the incumbent. As this old gadfly emphasized to me just a couple of days ago, "The Times subtly points out that Teachout is appealing to 'liberals'; as if many other kinds [of Democrats] will be voting in the primary...."
Post a Comment