Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Is Cynthia Nixon going to beat Andrew Cuomo in next month's Democratic Party Primary ???

Cuomo's favorability edge over Nixon looks like it is less than half of his lead in the straight-up gubernatorial primary polling  ---  and over 40% of the Democrats' "likely voters"  that have been polled say that they haven't decided who they are voting for yet..... 

Who knows who is coming out to vote on primary day ?

Will motivated, self-identified women's issue voters come out to vote for Andrew Cuomo instead of Cynthia Nixon ???

Isn't there a solid  >>> base <<<  of Democratic voters in New York State that just don't like anything about Andrew Cuomo ?????

With less than a month to go,  Cuomo's "lead" largely appears to be the result of an "inevitability factor"  ---  which is often a myth concocted by the incumbent's team.

It's both a blessing and a curse,  but with less than a month left to make her mark,  people still don't know very much about Cynthia Nixon.

In spite of all that,  in this off year election in this "Age of Trump"  ---   the country appears to be  trending left and  activist women appear to be very motivated in most areas of the country due to the whole President Trump thing. 

Cynthia Nixon is clearly to the left of Andy Cuomo and she is a woman.   On the other hand,  if you have listened to or read about Andy Boy lately,  he sounds like he is running against Trump for President already.

Predictably, the polls should narrow as we get closer to any election,  even if it's a primary election.  However, will that just be a normal dynamic in the inevitable Cuomo win,  or will it be the signal of a trend that will sweep Cynthia Nixon one step closer to the Governor's Mansion ?

At least one sage old Dem that I know says that he is now sure that Cynthia Nixon will win.  But he also adds this caveat,  "But, I've been wrong before."


Anonymous said...

Odd prediction, Gail.
Why get involved, it is the Democrats' race for governor, after all.
Cynthia Nixon isn't anything close to what you are about, is she?
Some of us GOP-Conservative BSIs are beginning to wonder about all your Democrat posting. Has Justin become your favorite BSI or even a near favorite?
That would be about three Dems, then, near the top of your list; or is it more that we don't know about?

Anonymous said...

11:04 illustrates what some of us have said many times: a lot of the people posting on this site have never worked on a political campaign. They know literally and figuratively nothing about campaigns or politics.

For those of you in that category, take heart: you can learn.

By nominating Cynthia Nixon, a far-left candidate with no government experience, who has taken some extreme views on several major issues, the Democrats would be doing Republican Marc Molinaro a huge favor.

He would face no entrenched, powerful incumbent, and both candidates would start the general election phase of the race with an equivalent campaign treasury. Molinaro might even have a modest advantage over her there.

In essence, we'd have a real shot to win.

Anonymous said...

A very short answer to your first question, GM is no CYnthia Nixon is not going to win. Based on the last election, there is a base vote against Cuomo in the Democratic Primary at around 40%. Nixon probably turned off about 4 or 5 percent of that vote. Her new leftish voters and what you call motivated women's issue voters won't bring in more than 10% new voters for her. So bottomline she gets 45% at the most; my guess is her vote will be closer to 40%. Cuomo has a big campaign and so far more Democrats know about Richard Nixon more than they do Cynthia Nixon.

Anonymous said...

4:06 sounds like an idiot

Leftist win democratic primaries. Woman also win. Leftist stuff may not appeal to you but you aren't voting.