The "... Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" is a seminal investigation and discussion about irrational mass behavior(s) of the sort that led many with a rooting interest against the incumbent Democrat City Council Member Justin Brannan to think that a respectable, attractive candidate was running against Brannan, and a pro-active and effective campaign was being waged against the incumbent councilman
The numbers on election day and since pretty clearly indicate that nothing could have been further from the truth
Brian Fox and the Brian Fox for City Council campaign hardly moved the needle up, down, or sideways compared to the results from the prior election between Brannan and Quaglione
In two elections in a row, with two completely different styles of Republican-Conservative candidates, the election results showed a nearly identical numerical outcome in the voting for the 43rd City Council District. Both times the Democrat Justin Brannan won with a nearly 50-50 split between the voters that voted for Brannan and those that voted against him.
In 2021, neither the issues raised nor the intensity of the campaigning seemed to matter even a little once the votes were all counted. Whatever re-election strategy was pursued by Brannan, it didn't click to advanse his vote even a little. Conversely, nothing done by the GOP-Conservative side ate into Brannan's 2017 vote in anyway that really mattered to the outcome in 2021's hotly contested election.
The "... delusion and madness of [the pro-Fox] crowd[ ]" continued to be on full diplay even after the reality of Fox's loss was well-known and widely acknowledged. The Fox folks kept telling anybody that might be listening to them that the Fox-McCabe campaign against Brannan had been well done, and should have resulted in a Fox win. Clearly any such expression is "... delusion and madness..."; and it ignores the real facts in the real world.
If anybody on any side of the great partisan divide that appparently exists in the near-purple area and district in Southwest Brooklyn does not approach the election results in 2021 as a cautionary tale, they are being very foolish. That also applies to the internecine warfare that has already broken out inside the Brooklyn GOP over all that happened in 2021 from January through November.
Now, some might argue that 2021 was a "one-off" kind of election --- that would be too pat an answer --- and it would be an example of sinful sloth..... It would also be a very bad way to kick off the preparations for the rather quick turnaround for the City Council election in 2023; or the even sooner, the statewide federal and NYS offices, and the federal congressional and NYS legislative local elections of 2022.
24 comments:
Consider the results. Fox was much closer than Q or any other GOP candidate. Just a fact that may matter.
RESPONSE: THE "THAT IS ANOTHER 'BIG LIE' FROM THE FOX-MC CABE CAMPAIGN" EDITION
TO: "ANONYMOUS SAID... AT 9:43 AM"
YOUR "FACT" IS JUST NOT A "FACT" AT ALL --- LET'S WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE OFFICIAL BOE COUNT SAYS THE NUMBERS ARE FOR THE RECORD OF THE 2021 ELECTION BETWEEN BRANNAN AND FOX.....
HOWEVER, THE INTERIM AND UNOFFICIAL NUMBERS MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT ANY FOX-BRANNAN RESULT IN 2021 CANNOT POSSIBLY BE "... MUCH CLOSER THAN Q OR ANY OTHER GOP CANDIDATE..." THERE JUST ISN'T ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE FROM 2017 TO MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE AT ALL [[[WHEN WE GET THE OFFICIAL NUMBERS FOR THE 2021 FOX-BRANNAN ELECTION, WE WILL COMPARE AND DO A DETAILED STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF JUST HOW CLOSE THEY ARE TO THE OFFICIAL NUMBERS OF THE 2017 QUAGLIONE-BRANNAN ELECTION --- COMPARING LIKE-TO-LIKE]]]
So, right beck atcha --- "Just a [few] fact[s] that may matter [sic] "
Back to Bob?
When all is said and done, Brannan will end up winning by the same % that he won in 2017. Fox didn't move the needle even during a massive Republican surge. These are the facts.
UPDATE & BACKFILL: THE "FOX-MC CABE SPIN TEAM" EDITION
BRIAN FOX AND LIAM MC CABE ARE WORKING "OT" THIS MORNNING TRYING TO DIG THEIR WAY OUT OF THE HOLE THEY'RE IN INSIDE THE BROOKLYN GOP NOW THAT EVERY REAL REPUBLICAN IN BROOKLYN CAN SEE THAT THEIR EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES WHEN IT CAME TO THE 2021 ELECTION --- EVEN WITH A MINI-RED-WAVE AND A NICE CHUNK OF MATCHING-FUNDS CASH, FOX AND MC CABE COULDN'T MOVE THE MARKER AGAINST BRANNAN --- EVEN BY A SKOSH/ SCOASH !!!
So today it's time for a dose of the spin cycle with a slightly unbalanced load to vibrate those yummy parts if you stand real close and just right. Don't be fooled --- it's all a distraction and most of it is BS.....
On the prior comments thread, we posted verbatum a message from both Liam and Brian as they went down memory lane together.....
[Cue Cliff Edwards (Ukelele Ike)]
"We strolled down the lane together,
Laughed at the rain together,
Sang love's refrain together,
And we both pretend --- It will never end.
One day we cried together,
Cast love aside together,
You're gone from me --- But in my memory,
We always will be...
Together...."
Liam's post referenced above is all about Liam making it clear he single-handily chose Fox as the Council candidate, trying to pump himself up thinking Fox did great but as Gale points out he did no better than Q in 2017. Fact is Capano or Quaglione would have won.
The think is Liam again with this post alienates folks. How do you think the district leaders within the council district feel to read that Liam solely selected Fox & led the campaign? Again, why people are coming back to Capano as a potential candidate in 2 years.
Meanwhile, to Justin Brannan it's like water off a duck's back. He's moving on to Tweets about T-giving food drives and Christmas Tree Lightings.
As to Brian Fox and the "dirty campaign of lies," it's already in Brannan's rearview mirror, as he makes his clean getaway.
A LITTLE BACKFILL: THE "SNARKY VICTORY SPEECH" EDITION
I HAVE IT ON GOOD AUTHORITY THAT BRANNAN BROKE THE CLINCH WITH FOX THIS WEEK WITH AN INTENTIONAL THUMB INTO HIS OPPONENT'S EYE TOGETHER WITH SOME LINIMENT ON HIS GLOVES
TO JUDGE BY SOME OF THE COMMENTS ON THE FOX CAMPAIGN'S SOCIAL MEDIA --- AS RECENTLY AS TODAY --- FOX AND FRIENDS ARE STILL SMARTING OVER BRANNAN'S VICTORY FANDANGO ON FOX'S FACE FOR FOX AND MCCABE'S RUNNING A DIRTY LYING CAMPAIGN
After the 2017 campaign Justin Brannan really didn't want to run against John Quaglione again. After the 2021 campagn by Fox and McCabe, Brannan is aching for a rematch against Fox in two years.
Capano 2023
Say it together
Capano definitely would have won. Look at his track record.
There is one common denominator here in all these losing races and his name is Liam McCabe
To recap:
John Quaglione - five time looser. if he had run against brannan, he'd be a six time looser
Brian Fox - who ?
Vito Bruno - who?
Liam McCabe - persona non grata
Bob Capano - award-winning author and Ivy League political science professor
UPDATE & BACKFILL: THE "SUDDENLY THE WHEELS COME OFF FOR THE FOX-MC CABE POST-ELECTION SPIN MACHINE" EDITION
ALL THE RECENT POSTS FOR LIAM AMBROSE MC CABE HAVE SUDDENLY DISAPPEARED AND THERE IS A LIMITATION NOTICE POSTED ON THE BRIAN FOX FOR CITY COUNCIL SITE WHERE THE RE-POSTED MC CABE COMMENT ABOUT MEETING BRIAN FOX FOR THE FIRST TIME A FEW YEARS AGO "OVER A GAME OF DARTS" HAD APPEARED MOST OF TODAY
We don't know what happened to the Liam Ambrose McCabe statement on McCabe's and/or Fox's Facebook sites; however, we at this indepndent GOP blog did anticipate this sort of thing happening --- so we published the statement verbatum on the comments thread following the prior featured post immediately below on this site.
Gail, the very sudden and mysterious disappearance of the whole Liam Ambrose McCabe Facebook Page is very suspicious.
It is only speculation, but my suspicion is that there was some proof of illegality somewhere in what McCabe had posted there, either recently or a while ago. It might be something to do with Mr. Fox, the conduct of the recent Fox camapaign, or possibly something else entirely.
It's easy, McCabe got heat for taking full credit for Fox candidacy and pulled it. In other words he alienated folks yet again...him and fox are at The Lief now.
Justins giving out Turkeys?
Does he look like he gives away food?
The misty eyed McCabe poem about his "old friend" Brian --- who nobody had ever heard of before 2021 but was secretly behind every great event that happened in Bay Ridge over the past decade --- reminded me of Liam's famous "train trestle" story from his Lief launch event in 2017. What a clown! Four time looser!
DEEP BACKFILL: THE "NEGATIVE RESEARCH" EDITION
JUSTIN BRANNAN IS QUITE BURNED UNDER HIS COLLAR HOW THINGS WENT VIS A VIS MR. FOX AND THE FOX CAMPAIGN --- ESPECIALLY THE LATE OCTOBER & NOVEMBER SURPRISES THAT CAUGHT HIM FLAT-FOOTED..... AND PROBABLY MADE BECOMING COUNCIL SPEAKER THE BRIDGE TOO FAR FOR JUSTIN
PART OF BRANNAN'S ANNOYANCE IS THAT HE HAD PLENTY OF NEGATIVE RESEARCH AMMUNITION TO USE AGAINST FOX BUT DIDN'T THINK HE WOULD NEED IT (AND HEAVY NEGATIE CAMPAIGNING SUGGESTS DESPERATION)..... THE MISTAKE IS THAT FOX STILL HAD CREDIBILITY AS A CANDIDATE FOR ABOUT 50% OF THE VOTERS WHEN HE AND MC CABE SPRUNG THEIR LATE OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER SURPRISES
Don't be surprised if lots of heavy negative stuff starts falling on Fox even if it's long before 2023.....
Brian Fox will not be back. The fictional Liam Facebook story written to "cheer up" Fox who has been despondent since the verdict earlier this week, buried under 7 feet of "snow"
This time Fox got almost 50%
Last time Bob got almost 1%
Fox lost by 500 votes. Q lost by 5000 votes.
RESPONSE: THE "MORE FAKE NEWS FROM FOX'S FOLKS" EDITION
TO: "ANONYMOUS SAID... AT 9:27 PM"
FACT: Q LOST TO BRANNAN by 794 VOTES..... NOT 5000 VOTES
The Fox folks still don't know the basics about elections --- whether it's before, during or after the voting on election day.
One has to wonder why Fox, McCabe and company keep showing off their almost complete ignorance of any part of the process.
Do we know if the Fox campaign cleaned the rug in the office?
Did Capano take over this blog because of all the posts!!!
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