REPUBLICANS BREAKING RANKS ACROSS THE NATION
Even Fox News is beginning to fold like a cheap suit.....
Trump has lost the narrative on both COVID-19, and the post-George Floyd "Dancing in the Streets"
"Taking a knee" is the new national symbol of unity
My America survived the Soviet Union for only twenty-eight and a half years.....
America was not consumed by the arsonists and urban terrorists, but by the "Fire in the Mind's of Men," (See "Fire in the Minds of Men: Origins of the Revolutionary Faith" by James H. Billington, 1980, Revised Edition Published by Transaction Publishers [ see Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire_in_the_Minds_of_Men]). which had smoldered behind so many facades, until it was fed by the back-draft of anti-Trumpism of the Democrat establishment, the mainstream media, the left-controlled internet and social media, and now the street agitators.....
17 comments:
Note to Republicans:
1. Take the hit; accept the loss of the Presidency in 2020. He's going down bad. Why further taint yourselves. Some of you may survive.
2. Purge the people who display Confederate flags, swastikas, and generally act like yahoos.
3. No, seriously: you were founded as the abolitionist party, the party of Lincoln. You let the New Confederacy infect you and devour you from within. Want to win the presidency in four years? Think Condoleeza Rice for President.
4. Try and wrap your head around the idea of a party that accepts, if not represents, the idea of consumer rights. Do the math: The number of consumers outnumber manufacturers by about 25-1.
Condoleeza Rice is known for one thing. Iraq.
just exactly which party is 4;50 talking about?
4:50 sounds like she used to be a Republican.
note to first comment posted by justin. go preach to diblasio the virtues of being a democrat.
Vito is in his district. Vito realizes the election is in November. Sign will be up this summer.
Polls show Trump is down. Just like in 2016.
Bobby C has an outstanding column this week in brooklyn paper.
I understand now why Capanos op-ed is syndicated in local press throughout brooklyn, manhattan, queens.
Why is Capano only one standing up to Dems
Polls show Trump down double digits. He was slightly behind Hillary in 2016.
It's over.
Because they have so much empty space to fill?
As a former Presidential Campaign pollster who was the first inside the GOP war room to call 2004 for Bush by analyzing the first Kentucy district that came in and called 2016 for Trump on the Sunday before the election I'd urge extreme caution into reading too much into most polls right now. Not saying Trump is going to win, but there are numerous reasons for uncertainty.
1 GW was down where Trump was to Dukakis at this time in 2018.
2. We have never polled during a pandemic with double digit unemployment before.
3. Internal polling - the most reliable polling is showing some huge gaps in enthusiasm that are deadly for Biden. HIs hope is the current protests will change this but I highly doubt it. There was a primary in Penn last week and Biden's numbers were awful - like hair losing awful - compared to Trumps.
4) The Protests can go either way. Moderate voters and suburban women may say all the controversy around Trump and his tactics are the cause and just electing Joe Biden will bring peace on the streets. Or there can be a huge law and order backlash vote.
5) People tend to lie to to pollsters a lot about their support for Trump.
6) My sense is he is going to secure 15% of the Black vote. This is a death knell for Biden. Ironically the riots may have hardened enough non Republican African Americans - who worry about their business, places of worship, and safety - to vote for Trump. Again at 12% it gets really hard for Biden to win.
7) Biden is a walking gaffe and mistake machine. Many Americans haven't been exposed to this side of him because for the most part he hasn't been in the public eye.
8) A V shaped recovery is very possible and it will be hard for many to vote out the guy who is in the White House during a powerful recovery.
9) Biden looks very very feeble. Americans always vote for the Alpha. Dems have won recent President elections by running young, vigorous, change candidates. Biden is like the stale version of John Kerry meets Hillary.
10) Polls are snapshots and opportunities to express frustration. Look at what America has been through these past 4 months. I'm frankly surprised Trump isn't further down. Again there are some important positive signs in the internal polling I've been privy to.
12) This doesn't mean Arizona, Florida, and Georgia are not huge concerns. And Trump still has to shore up the Democratic Firewall states like PA, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
13)Trump wins when he controls the framework of the debate and is the center of attention. He actually went to Hollywood before he got in the 2016 race and went over tactics with Survivor Producer Mark Burnett. Trump gamed the 2016 primary than shifted to fascinating villain mode ala the Apprentice. He innately understands the villain is the most interesting and often most respected figure in reality tv when he or she is perceived as pulling the strings. He is more a bystander right now on the Covid and Protest fronts. This is his major challenge.
It is going to be interesting. The race is so far from over.
RESPONSE: THE "INTERESTING --- VERY INTERESTING" EDITION
TO: "ANONYMOUS SAID... AT 5:28 AM"
YOUR LONG AND DETAILED COMMENT IS OF A QUALITY THAT WE DON'T OFTEN SEE IN THESE PARTS.....
HOWEVER, THOUGH YOUR COMMENT SUGGESTS THAT IT IS DERIVED FROM INSIDE SOURCES, IT MIGHT WELL BE AN ARTFULLY CONSTRUCTED ARTIFACT MADE TO APPEAR SO..... NONETHELESS, IT IS A GREAT PIECE FOR THESE TIMES WHEN IT IS NECESSARY TO PREACH EVEN TO THE CHOIR --- BECAUSE IT ISN'T JUST "MODERATE VOTERS AND SUBURBAN WOMEN [WHO MIGHT BE THINKING THAT] ALL THE CONTROVERSY AROUND TRUMP AND HIS TACTICS ARE [A] CAUSE OF IT [AND GIVEN EVERYTHING THAT'S HAPPENING, SOME KIND OF BIG CHANGE MIGHT BE NECESSARY]".....
So, whether your comment is a legit insider's view or just a well-told tale, it presents an interesting >>> OUTLOOK <<< for some Trump supporters and even some "undecideds" who have been with Trump in the past.....
It certainly was worth while to spend a little time reading and thinking about [and for me an opportunity to "RESPOND" as I have].....
Villain mode?
So Trump is going to start twirling his mustache when he ties Fox News bimbettes to railroad tracks?
--I also pretend to be a former presidential pollster. I was the first to call Fox News Faux News.
How about you call it "Guy Faux News" while you're at it.
I agree that unless I give the names of my sources anything I write about having them must be taken with some suspicion. My inside source could be the intern at Rassmussen LOL.
So back to my 2004 prediction. Let's not forget that Rove and Bush thought they had lost while they were still in the air. The media exit polls were dreary and seemingly decisive. At headquarters we were screaming at each other about how this could happen. Then as I said Kentucky comes in first. In 2004 it was more of a swingy state especially some districts that performed like bellweather districts in all important Ohio. There was also an incumbent GOP Senator - a Hall of Fame Pitcher - Jim Bunning on the ballet in the state. Bunning was dealing with serious mental decline and had made some consequential gaffes in the weeks running up to the election. We were worried about his ability to hold. His poll numbers were in free fall. So when I saw his numbers in some of the select Kentucky districts I'd modeled again and immediately identified he was way over performing I ran a quick screen to contrast my projections with the media's in Ohio. I immediately got the great news upstairs. The media exit polls were not accurate and Bush had it bagged.
Trump is in real trouble. I don't need or look at polls to tell me that. He has lost control of the storyline. But we are only in the 5th inning of the baseball game.
If anyone doubts that who imagined there would be an event that would knock Covid into second place in the news these past two weeks?
Something else I didn't write in long winded post above. Team Trump has not unleashed its saturation bombing campaign on Biden yet. It is far too early. There are few things I can promise five months out. One thing I can is Biden is going to be barely recognizable from even the caricature he is today.
This is going to be a base turn out election. This is why the riots are so important to the Democrats. The BLM movement - if properly targeted by the GOP - can be focused on Crime Bill Joe to a game changing effect. Let's not forget. Trump doesn't need to secure African American votes - although he will likely do very well in this department. He just needs African Americans to reject the the guy who called a big portion of the black population predators while pushing through a mass incarceration bill.
Biden's options are now narrowing. He can't really not pick an African American VP. Abrams is not ready for prime time. There are a couple of very interesting names not on the high profile lists but he is pretty much left with Harris and Demmings. We have seen the BLM's wrath for African American law enforcement officers and leaders. Biden can't cave into the defund the police demands so where is he going to be left? He isn't verbally agile like Obama and Clinton. He is going to make gaffe after gaffe after mistake.
The race hasn't even started to get interesting.
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