After all the Brooklyn Republicans had their day in court, both sides ["all" sides in the 46th AD] will have to go to the Republican Rank & File, and do and say something to make them care enough to vote for the Republican County Committee — whatever that is
Some operatives for the Eatons and for the Goldens will urge that their principals target prime-Republicans with laser dots. Some others who know a thing or two about what’s really happening inside the Brooklyn GOP will argue against this small “money ball” approach. So, who is right and who will influence the top guys and principal parties in interest — Craig and Marty ?
The smart advisers to both men at the tops of their respective groups should be telling each of them that as far as the Republican rank-and-file is concerned, if they notice at all, this will not be seen as a battle between Craig Eaton and Marty Golden — it will be seen as a referendum on State Senator Marty Golden. It will be a referendum conducted only among Republican prime voters; and given that reality, those who spout conventional wisdom might ask, “How can Marty lose ?”
Let me ask the question a different way. How can Marty be sure that he will win a referendum that’s all about him where his name doesn’t even appear on the ballot ? Equally important, what kind of campaign will the Golden crowd be able to mount that certainly will get out all or most of the Golden-leaning voters to vote for Golden’s “Republicans for Change” candidates ? I’m sure that there will be plenty of mail for the County Committee candidates endorsed by Marty Golden. That’s what’s been done in the past in other recent primaries; but that has really worked only some of the time. Since 2010 it’s been about 50/50. What is certain is that in all kinds of races, or to put it another way, ALWAYS, about one-third of Republican prime voters have ignored or rejected Golden’s endorsements or exhortations — in fact, in some areas that anti-Golden Republican vote gets up to 50%. or higher.
Enough about Golden’s problems, for now !
Craig Eaton and some of his top people want to argue that Eaton had been a loyal Golden supporter, who did as well as possible under very tough conditions, and that Golden’s move against Eaton is a very unfair stab in the back. — Too bad, so sad, grow up ! Nobody whose name is not Eaton, Berardelli or Gallo really cares.
Eaton’s personal vilification or justification is almost completely irrelevant to most Brooklyn Republicans ( with the exception of Glenn Nocera on the side of vilification noted). Equally unimportant to the Brooklyn GOP rank-n-file is which cabal of Brooklyn Republican insiders has what hollow titles and illusory powers. So, how does GOP County Leader Craig Eaton and his KCRP organization make a popular appeal and defend itself from this Golden shower in the form of a “Republicans for Change” election challenge ?
One key insider for Eaton & Co. has been urging a campaign of targeted mail that identifies “Republicans for Change” as an alter-ego of the Albany-based Senate Republican Conference that is the last gasp of a failed Dean Skelos-run State Senate, which is holding onto power as part of coalition with Democrats that is committed to the Andrew Cuomo agenda. This attempts to generate a pro-Brooklyn chauvinism against an attack by outsiders. Others close to Eaton want to attack Golden directly in a full-on street campaign with a likely hangover into 2014. It’s anybody’s guess who might win out in that argument.
If both sides decide to play small ball, that should favor Marty G and his side. However, the side that plays the best “money ball” version (micro-targeting and unique messaging) of small ball will do better. Nonetheless, because of the law of entropy, which completely applies in politics (look at the flap over the shredded petitions), no matter how much both sides might want this to be done in a “small ball” manner, it all will get bigger than anybody intends. That almost rises to the level of certainty, because there are enough people out there who actually want this made into a big deal from the get-go.
My prediction is this: both sides will plan their campaigns for the county committee candidates on a very small ball model; and a “money ball”-type strategy will be aimed at that. However, also expect to see a noisy and showy backdrop of villains and phantasms, all being exposed trying to take over the Brooklyn GOP – this will also probably wind up involving the mayoral campaigns of Catsimatidis and Lhota. Bottom line, this whole Eaton-Golden thing will wind up in some kind of free for all, with some targeted mail about the county committee candidates that could easily get lost in all the larger scale shuffling, and all the huffing and puffing to blow the other guy’s house down.
