MY PREDICTIONS FOR THE CITY COUNCIL PRIMARY

I have a cold and I was trying to get some rest before going out to dinner with some family members tonight  ---  that was before I got three different John Quaglione robocalls  along with one or two for the other guys  running  ---  And then, I got  a marathon filibuster of a call from one of my regular followers (yes, maybe that should be my ONE regular follower) asking, pleading, begging, exhorting (and on and on without any offer of reward or compensation to me of any kind) that I do a feature post about the City Council primaries in Bay Ridge

Since there is only so much torture that a man of my age and in my condition can take,  I will succumb  ---  reluctantly.....

FOR THE REPUBLICANS
The envelope,  please !!!

Oh,  I guess everybody knew this before I did  ---  the winner will be  >>>  LIAM MC CABE <<<  in a squeeker over both John Quaglione and Bob Capano,  who will be still fighting it out at the wire for second and third, even after the polls have closed.  As for Lucretia Regina-Potter,  although she will not be that close to the front-runners,  she will get enough of a vote in her pockets of strength to show whomever comes in second and/or third that making an early deal with Lucretia and Arnaldo would have been a wiser strategy than trying to shut them out and, more important, shut them down.

Why Liam will come in for the win at the finish ???   Whenever the new kid in the race shows that he can be a credible candidate  ---  that is a very big advantage.  Plus,  his argument that all the others have run before and failed miserably is quite compelling.

Why not Quaglione,  he's so much better than he was ???   John ran a very good campaign;  if both he and Liam were newcomers,  I'd even give the edge to John.  However,  first impressions are lasting,   and JQ's bad performance running for the same office in 2013 won't be overlooked by most of the folks this time around.

Doesn't the same argument apply for Bob Capano ???   To a certain extent it does,  but 2009 is a very long time ago,  and  who even remembers that Bob also ran unsuccessfully for the NYS Assembly ???   Bob raised less cash than two of his intra-party opponents, and most of the Democrats as well. That's not great for somebody who lists John Catsimatidis,  Curtis Sliwa and Craig Eaton among his strongest supporters.....  On the other hand,  Bob and his team have waged a long uphill fight largely based on great media presentation and an appeal to the Donald Trump base inside the Brooklyn GOP in Southwest Brooklyn.  It's possible that Bob & Co, might have found the winning formula for the 2017  race for CIty Council  ---   however, I do believe that is unlikely.

Lastly,  let's look at Lucretia.....   I think it was a strategic blunder for her to have appeared in three (not just two) different places on the GOP Primary ballot  throughout the center portion of the 43rd Council District.  In those overlapping areas in the 43rd Council District,  Lucretia Regina-Potter is running to become Republican State Committee Person (again),  Judicial Delegate (again) and Republican candidate for the NY City Council.  Her latest robocall invites certain voters to "fill in the circle" next to her name up to three times wherever it might appear on the Republican Primary Ballot. I think that message is too much of a heavy lift for most voters.  Nonetheless, I do predict that Lucretia will receive a significant vote on the line for City Council  ---  possibly even enough to exceed the winners "margin" of victory over the number two vote-getter,  possibly even number two and number three.....

AND FOR THE DEMOCRATS

(Yawn !!!)

I said before that I think that Justin Brannan has the edge in this race to succeed his boss,  Vinny Gentile  ---  and that should be enough to enable Justin to hold on and win against all comers, foreign and domestic.

Even though "The Reverend" Khader Al-Yateem has definitely won this year's contest for gargantuan picture posters displayed between Senator and 73rd Streets on Fifth Avenue,  remember that the adage "posters don't vote" applies equally to gargantuan sized posters of Palestinian-born clerics running throughout Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights,  Bath Beach and lower Bensonhurst.