With a plus/minus factor of 4% poll is a statistical “Dead Heat” between Grimm and Recchia
Sienna Poll says that 21% of Grimm’s Republican supporters are less likely to vote for him because of the federal indictment — that percentage grows to 54% of “All Voters”
Congressman Michael Grimm viewed unfavorably by 49 % of voters — When last re-elected, Grimm had only a 32% unfavorable rating
Cuomo leads Astorino 60% to 28% in the same district
The Staten Island Advance’s Tom Wrobleski writes that “GOP Rep. Michael Grimm leads Democratic challenger Domenic M. Recchia Jr., 44 to 40 percent, in a "neck and neck battle" for Congress, according to a new independent poll out Tuesday that also shows the incumbent with high unfavorable ratings. *** The poll, conducted by Siena Research Institute, NY1 and Capital New York, showed Green Party candidate Henry Bardel with 4 percent, and said that 12 percent of those surveyed were undecided....” (See “Poll: In 'dogfight,' GOP Rep. Michael Grimm has 4-point lead over Democrat Recchia, but incumbent's unfavorable ratings are high” by Tom Wrobleski, Staten Island Advance/ silive.com [http://www.silive.com/news/index.ssf/2014/09/poll_in_dogfight_gop_rep_micha.html#incart_related_stories][ wrobleski@siadvance.com / Follow on Twitter]).
"What we're seeing is that this is a dogfight right from the word go," said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg, "With only four points separating the candidates, these next seven weeks look to be a major battle..."
In this first independent poll done in the critical contested congressional district that spans the Verrazano Bridge and which is being watched across the country, Grimm held a 9% lead on the Staten Island side of the 11th Congressional District, while Recchia had a 7% lead at the Brooklyn end.
The same poll indicated that among voters in the Grimm-Recchia district — in the gubernatorial race, Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo has a commanding 60-28 % lead over Republican Rob Astorino.
Grimm has high unfavorable ratings? Not possible. Everyone i know loves him.
ReplyDeleteMaybe they just haven't heard he was a marine/ fbi/lawyer/accountant/ businessman/ ping pong champion of southwest staten island. ..
Polls that are over a month before an election are useless especially in a local race. Naturally Cuomo has high numbers as Astorino has yet to get on peoples Radar. Maybe he never will.
ReplyDeleteThis blog in a previous posting had referred to an e mail between Hynes and a Golden staffer. That e mail was from Hynes boasting about a poll taken before Sept 2013 primary that showed Hynes had 88% of the brownstone Park Slope vote. On primary day Hynes lost 3 to 1 in the Slope.
My point in this analysis is that Recchia will lose because hes fat and cant play ping pong.
The person who posted comment above really needs to focus on getting that HS equivalency
ReplyDeleteHere we go again. Was it a full Moon last night. I'm waiting to hear from the real loons like the lady with the "I am woman hear me roar because I'm to ugly to ignore".
ReplyDeleteUPDATE & BACKFILL: THE “WHY DIDN’T I SAY THAT” EDITION
ReplyDeleteWASHINGTON POST REPORTS ON GRIMM-RECCHIA POLL — W-P SAYS CONGRESSMAN GRIMM SHOULDN’T CELEBRATE YET
The Siena Poll mentioned in the post above is being talked about in an article in the national media’s favorite post, The Washington Post (See “Indicted Rep. Michael Grimm leads in a new poll. But he shouldn’t celebrate just yet.” by Philip Bump, 9/18/14, Washington Post/ The Fix [http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/09/18/indicted-rep-michael-grimm-leads-in-a-new-poll-but-he-shouldnt-celebrate-just-yet/ ]).
The gist of the W-P article includes an analysis of the numbers that is very close to what I reported above. So if you read my post yesterday, you heard this stuff already.
It’s quite interesting that the W-P’s Philip Bump only managed to bash Republicans that have had scandal-caused problems in their attempts at re-election. “And so it goes.”