[See UPDATES Below]
The numbers have been cooked, stewed, shaked and baked.
Economists and statisticians expected a rise to 8.2%, but, mysteriously, almost magically it came out as "7.8%".
This number will be "adjusted" --- after the election. But for now, here's how they did it.
Here's the Huffington Post take on it:
"The Labor Department says employers added 114,000 jobs in September. The economy also created 86,000 more jobs in July and August than first estimated. Wages rose in September and more people started looking for work.
The revisions show employers added 146,000 jobs per month from July through September, up from 67,000 in the previous three months. The unemployment rate fell from 8.1 percent in August, matching its level in January 2009 when President Barack Obama took office.
The decline could help Obama, who is coming off a disappointing debate against Mitt Romney."
Do yuh think ?
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UPDATE: 10-5-12, 5:40PM Christian Science Monitor – Decoder Wire looks into a “firestorm”
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“Unemployment rate tampering? Why conspiracy theorists went wild.” by Ron Scherer
The first line of Ron Scherer’s article in the Christian Science Monitor about today’s BLS Unemployment Statistics was a pointed question: “Just a month before the election, did the White House “cook the books” to get the unemployment rate down to 7.8 percent in September?”
Scherer gave the Obama Administration’s side by quoting an answer by Labor Secretary Hilda Solis to some of the criticism of today’s Unemployment numbers. Her rebuttal is as follows: “You know I am insulted when I hear that because we have a very professional civil service organization where you have top economists working at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).... It is really ludicrous to hear that kind of statement.” Secretary Solis had appeared on CNBC to refute allegations that any massaging of the data had occurred at the Department of Labor.
Sherer then outlined how the U.S. Deptartment of Labor BLS arrived at its September unemployment estimate:
“When it reports the unemployment data each month, the Labor Department looks at two different surveys. The first survey asks 141,000 businesses and government agencies if they have hired anyone in the past month. This is called the establishment survey, and it showed that only 114,000 people had been hired by businesses in September, compared with an average of about 140,000 per month so far this year. *** At the same time, the BLS contracts out to the Department of Census to call 60,000 people every month to ask if their employment situation has changed. This household survey determines the unemployment rate. *** Using the household survey, the BLS estimated that last month 873,000 people had found work. After estimating the number of people who got fired or laid off, the bureau, using that survey, said that the number of unemployed people dropped by approximately 456,000. *** It is not unusual for the number to vary greatly month to month, notes economist Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisers in Holland, Pa. For example, in April the BLS reported that 342,000 fewer people had found jobs and in May it reported that 642,000 had found work.”
As a result of Scherer’s article, The Christian Science Monitor waded into the firestorm surrounding the issue of possible Obama White House tampering with the Obama Labor Department’s numbers with this observation, “Retired GE CEO Jack Welch saw Friday's jobs report, with its 7.8 percent unemployment rate, as 'unbelievable.' Others on the right piled on, suggesting Obama administration tampering....” Ron Scherer’s article specifically noted, “That’s how retired General Electric chairman Jack Welch sees it....” quoting Walsh’s tweet, “Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can’t debate so change numbers.”
If you might be wondering about the CSM/Ron Scherer slant here’s a tip in Scherer’s own words, “Mr. Welch’s tweet has set off a firestorm of activity in the virtual realm. Conspiracy theorists jumped on board as if the Obama administration had hidden reports of UFOs landing in the Rose Garden.”
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UPDATE II: 10-6-12 2:20AM from Joel B. Pollack report "FACT CHECK: LABOR SECRETARY SOLIS MISLEADS ON JOBS REVISIONS" posted at Breitbart-Big Government
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Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis pulls another Ambassador Susan Rice — giving erroneous information as the Administration's spokesperson on CNBC to defend the Obama "gospel" of 7.8% jobless number for September 2012.
Error’s by the Secretary of labor should prompt closer scrutiny of the federal government's September jobs report.
During the appearance by Secretary of Labor Hilda Solis on CNBC Friday morning to defend Fridays’ numbers released by her department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Secretary of Labor immediately and falsely reported that upward revisions of 86,000 jobs in July and August were jobs created in the private sector. It soon turned out that in fact, the revised numbers were entirely accounted for by upwards revisions to state and federal government payrolls.
According to the BLS report for September 2012, only 114,000 jobs were created in September. That should have translated into a rise in unemployment from 8.1% to 8.2% according to most economists, instead the unemployment rate unexpectedly and dramatically fell to 7.8%. That unusual drop is the fastest in nearly three decades, and was unexpected even in the rosiest predictions. One reason for the rise was the upward revision of 86,000 to the July and August jobs numbers – all of which resulted from a 91,000 increase in the estimate of public sector jobs, while simultaneously private sector job estimates for July and August were revised downward by 5,000.
In addition, the BLS reported a large rise in the number of part-time jobs, adding 600,000 jobs to the total – a dramatic increase of 7.5%, which is not explained by any other economic indicators. According to Jack Welch and others, that level of increase had last been achieved in 1983. All of that raises questions as to whether the BLS had changed the way it “counted” part-time workers.
It is also problematic that the 86,000 upward revision for July and August came entirely from revisions to public sector payrolls by cash-strapped federal and state governments. That would indicate that instead of shedding jobs, as previously reported by the Department of Labor and other sources, federal, state and local governments have been adding jobs.
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