Sunday, November 19, 2017

Howard Graubard's excellent analysis


Gatemouth !!!   Howard Graubard ???   Who knew ???


---  I worked with the man for years,  did lunch, did drinks (didn't do the nasty).....  Now, he's completely out of the closet as "Gatemouth"  ---  Who next ???   Superman,  Batman, Zorro, Mickey Suits, John Catsimatidis ?????


HG's  in-depth 2017 NYC election analysis is definitely top notch  ---  all the way down to the 43rd  District City Council race



Let's go right to Mr. Graubard's  >>> local <<<  look at the "greater Bay Ridge" district: 

[As part of an overall Graubard/Gatemeouth rebuttal to a NY Times analysis of the city-wide impact of the Mayor DeBlahblah campaign]

"....  Let’s get real here [first, HG analyzed the Yeger-Hikind race; then he got down to Brannan-Quaglione]

....   As for Brannan, he scratched out a victory of 12,516 (50.51 percent) to 11,621 (46.89 percent) over his Republican opponent, John Quaglione—a close race and a stunning contrast to the race four years before, when Quaglione lost 62.76 percent to 35.50 percent.

And there may be an explanation for Quaglione’s improvement.

In the same area where Brannan barely won, the mayor managed only 9,330 votes (36.56 percent) to Malliotakis’ 14,302 (56.05 percent). Sal Albanese, who represented almost all of that area on the council from 1982 to 1997, got 1,119 (4.39 percent) on the Reform line.

How badly was the mayor repudiated here? Well, in the same area, the incumbent councilman, Vincent Gentile—who’d recently run fifth in the countywide district attorney primary while still winning that area—managed to get 48 percent of that district’s votes on the Reform line, without campaigning.

In other words, the mayor ran 14 percent behind a political zombie.

But if one believes The Times, the mayor lent Brannan coattails by getting nearly 3,000 fewer votes and running behind him by almost 14 percent.

Those were not coattails; they were nearly a noose [for Brannan]...." 
(See "Election Analysis Reveals Another Tale of Two Cities" by Howard Graubard,  11/15/17,  New York Jewish Life  [https://nyjlife.com/2017/11/election-analysis-reveals-another-tale-two-cities/]).
______________________________

NOTE:  THIS IS THE GRAUBARD/GATEMOUTH ANALYSIS;   AND IT DOESN'T CONSIDER THE OCD CONSPIRACY THEORIES THAT WE LOVE HERE AT  "BROOKLYN ...  FOUNTAINHEAD"

72 comments:

  1. Gentile getting 48% of the vote on the reform party line is truly amazing.

    ReplyDelete
  2. So if De Blasio wasn't the Mayor, Quaglione and Kassar and Golden would have list to Brannan by 30 points..

    Next year will be very interesting for Golden with Brannan, Eaton, and Capano gunning for him

    ReplyDelete
  3. Brannan had to outrun a very unpopular mayor by double digits in order to win. If John Q couldn't pull out a win with headwinds like that... then I'm afraid the party's over, gentlemen.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Gatemouth is a true historian. If he is taking any requests can he explain how the war of '84 broke out. When Meade Esposito stepped down he snubbed his leader Anthony "Fat Tony" Genovesi to take his place picking Howard Golden instead. Why?

    The result was every leader in Brooklyn had to pick a side. Every leader faced a primary. Golden prevailed but the soldiers in the trenches remained with Fat Tony.

    Why did Meade switch?

    ReplyDelete
  5. hey all dems get off this blog

    ReplyDelete
  6. Gale dont get pushed around. You were always a big tent type of guy. Let the other parties in

    ReplyDelete
  7. Its "Mikey Suits" not Mickey.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I read Gatemouths analysis. It was very good but does this guy still watch black and white TV? Marios Biaggi, Proccacion and Vito Batista !! Whats a matter Al Blumenthal and the O'Dwyer's to hip for him?

    ReplyDelete
  9. RESPONSE: THE "YOU SAY 'POTATO' --- I SAY 'SPUD'..." EDITION

    TO: "ANONYMOUS SAID... AT 9:01 PM"

    "MICKEY" -- "MIKEY" -- "MOOKIE" --- NEXT THING YOU'LL BE TELLING ME IT'S "MIKEY MOUSE" NOT "MICKEY MOUSE".....

    DIDN'T THE BARD HIMSELF WRITE, "WHAT'S IN A NAME?"

    Besides, isn't "Mikey" the silly nickname for the stadium at West Point (I do now jest.....); so how can it also be the silly nickname for our once and future congressman ????? (And now, I jest you not.....)

    ReplyDelete
  10. If DeBlahzio wasn't DeMayor, Quaglione (and thereby Kassar, Golden & Long) would have lost to Brannan by upwards of the 30 percentage points. And that, my dear friend, is the #1 overall takeaway here

    ReplyDelete
  11. That's mighty tough talk from a fat, bald guy with a TON of medical conditions.

    ReplyDelete
  12. 4:35 just described 90% of republicans

    ReplyDelete
  13. I thought he was describing Justin.

    ReplyDelete
  14. What transition does a councilman do who already works in the office? Change the toilet paper roll and return address on fax machine.

    ReplyDelete
  15. 1125 am..those are the tough calls Craig Eaton will be making

    ReplyDelete
  16. 11:25 AM... Brannan left Vinny's office in spring 2017. You must be thinking of John Quaglione who suckled at Golden's government teet for the duration of the primary AND the general election. Incidentally, next year will mark TWENTY YEARS of service to Marty Golden for John Q. I hear they'll be celebrated at the Green House Cafe with boiled goose for all

    ReplyDelete
  17. Quaglione could have made big bucks but instead decided on public service.

    ReplyDelete
  18. This blog exists to bash republicans

    ReplyDelete
  19. Craigs a republican?

    ReplyDelete
  20. It's sad when Craig can't go to any local community events anymore because he is afraid to face Marty Golden and those in attendance of course flock to Marty leaving Craig alone. Maybe this is why Craig stays in Manhattan with Cats.

    ReplyDelete
  21. 5:10 is clearly delusional. Craig goes anywhere he wants, how Marty can face Craig after all the garbage he's thrown his way is another question.

    ReplyDelete
  22. OVERALL RESPONSE: THE "NOBODY HAS COME UP WITH A SOLUTION YET" EDITION

    TO ALL THE COMMENTERS ON THIS BLOG SINCE SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 18TH AT 12:39 PM

    WHY HASN'T ANYBODY EVEN ATTEMPTED TO EXPLAIN WHY JOHN QUAGLIONE RAN SO FAR BEHIND NICOLE MALLIOTAKIS IN THEIR OVERLAPPING EDs IN THE 64TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT IN BAY RIDGE ?????

    Just how many Republican voters voted for Nicole M and not John Q in the Brooklyn portion of her 64th AD ????? Now, repeat that question for all the EDs in the 43rd Council District.....

    HINT: Mr. Grabard's numbers indicate that Nicole M ran ahead of John Q by over 2500 votes in the whole City Council District --- 2671, to be precise. That number is almost three times larger that Mr. Brannan's margin of victory over Johnny Q.

    We've heard from Howard, but now: "... Splain, Lucy, splain !!!!!"

    ReplyDelete
  23. I was at the BOE Hearings this last round, and witnessed something that was truly shameful and might explain a few things to the commentors here.

    At the hearing I was told that after Ghorra agreeing with DL John Pawson, that Pawson would fill all the County Committee spots in the 64th Assembly District, unbeknownst to Pawson, who is not that sharp of a tool, Ghorra submitted Petitions for County Committee challenging Eaton. However, idiot Ghorra, McLelland and the other useless staffers for Golden, used the same Committee to Fill Vacancies on the other Petitions, which meant there was an overdesignation. Therefore Eaton could not be placed on the ballott.

    Knowing this fact, I am at a loss to wonder why Eaton would owe any allegiance to Ghorra, Golden or for that matter even Quaglione.

    Why would or should he support or help these losers in any way at all? He served as chair for over 9 years, won many special and general elections and did a great job.that.

    Golden, Ghorra and the rest will get what the deserve in the end. Afterall we all know that Kassar and Q already got what they deserved.

    Thems are the facts ladies and gentlemen.

    ReplyDelete
  24. RESPONSE: THE "THAT MIGHT EXPLAIN WHY THE BROOKLYN GOP IS SCREWED UP IN THE 64TH AD, BUT WHY ....." EDITION

    TO: "ANONYMOUS SAID... AT 8:57 PM"

    THANK YOU, FOR ALL THAT

    Again, why the huge discrepancy in the Malliotakis-Quaglione vote in the 64th AD and throughout the 43rd Council District ????? Why were Nicole's coattails not big enough to carry John Q. over ?????

    ReplyDelete
  25. diblasio was not popular. Justin is.

    That explains it.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Sal A's vote and Vinny G's "Zombie" vote on the Reform line is another tale to tell..... Those folks went overwhelmingly for Justin and not Booby C.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Gentile only had one opponent with no connection to bay ridge. Capano had 2 opponents whose base was bay ridge. No doubt Capano cost Quaglione the election. Moral of the story is watch out for Capano who is rumored to be the reform party candidate for New York state Comptroller next year.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Has anyone else seen John Quaglione's exchange with Julianne Cuba on t witter? He accuses Eaton and Capano of making deals with Brannan and he used phrases like the 'enemy of your enemy is your friend"..when a Cuba asks him to explain he says "you can figure it out"...very sad John and Kassar are going through this blame all except themselves for loss

    ReplyDelete
  29. Q has lost his mind. Time for Golden and Q to have a little sit down and tell Q to stop carrying on like a baby. He lost twice. Now face it, you can never run again and will always be Marty's little worker.

    Just like Golden had to give up on his dream of becoming a Congressman or Mayor.....does anybody really believe that Golden thought he was bright enough to be either? I persoannlly think he is above his pay grade as a Senator. With those dees and does and libaries, he is barely literate now.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Malliotakis numbers could have been even better if not for Kassar. Same thing for Quaglione. Now they are trying to blame Craig Eaton which probably stokes his ego even more. I'm sure GM can get some interesting backstory to this if he looks into it.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Quaglione had the wind in his sails. he had name recognition from 2013 and his 19 years as a top aide to Golden; he had a mayor who is universally hated and he had Nicole's ardent support in her own assembly district. yet, in spite of these tailwinds, Quaglione still couldn't put it together and is now a two-time loser candidate in the hall of records. Quaglione attempting to assign blame anywhere but to the man in the mirror would be a lie

    ReplyDelete
  32. John Q came to testify at the monument committee hearing. Does he know he lost? Does he know the war is over? He is starting to remind me of a modern day Hiroo Onoda

    ReplyDelete
  33. Maybe Q is running for office next year.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Q will be the next state senator

    ReplyDelete
  35. Maybe Q will primary Marty!

    ReplyDelete
  36. Maybe Eaton should primary Marty-- or is he all talk???

    ReplyDelete
  37. Craig primarying Marty - ha Ha ha

    Craigs in it to make money not spend it.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Let me get this straight because I believe Mr Graubard is on to something. Gentile with a non existent race for DA gets 48% of the vote in Bay Ridge on the reform ticket. Bob Capano spends thousands of dollars for city council and gets 1% on the reform ticket.

    Sounds like Bob is the man to watch.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Q and Kassar are really in a deep depression about their big loss

    ReplyDelete
  40. The most shocking revelation was that, after all these years, Galewyn didn't know that Graubard was Gatemouth !!!

    ReplyDelete
  41. "Hi Craig, it's Johnny Cats, Happy Thanksgiving, do me a favor stop by & see Capano and bring me a turkey baster."

    ReplyDelete
  42. RESPONSE: THE "OBVIOUS IS SOMETIMES NOT OBVIOUS" EDITION

    TO: "ANONYMOUS SAID... AT 3:49 PM" & "... AT 6:16 PM"

    MY DENIAL OF ANY PRIOR KNOWLEDGE OF THE TRUE IDENTITY OF "GATEMOUTH" WAS AN ARTIFACT MOTIVATED BY SEVERAL PARALLEL INTENTIONS --- A) SUPERFICIAL HUMOR; B) SEVERAL LAYERS OF IRONY; C) EXPRESSION OF AN EXISTENTIAL PARALLEL REALITY: AND D) AN UNWRITTEN CONTRACTUAL/ MORAL OBLIGATION UNDERLYING CERTAIN FELLOW-BLOGGERS' UNDERSTANDING(S) VIV A VIS THEIR POSSIBLE SUB-ROSA INTERACTION(S)

    For those that wagered any money on this --- those who bet on GM knowing the true identity of G-M (see what I did there...) , you are WINNERS.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Q results show Marty wins next year.

    ReplyDelete
  44. wrong 7:32

    Marty is going to be part of the anti trump vote that gives it to a democrat. who the democrat is

    ReplyDelete
  45. I suspect gale is posting from various locations outside of Brooklyn. Fess up Massey !!

    ReplyDelete
  46. Just like Wolfman Jack (a guy from 12th street) Gale may be broadcasting from over the border

    ReplyDelete
  47. You mean like in "American Graffiti"?

    Where were you in '62?

    ReplyDelete
  48. When people talk about the 1% does that include bob?

    ReplyDelete
  49. FAKE NEWS 11:41

    Bob got 1 and a 1/2%

    ReplyDelete
  50. I bet John wishes he had that 1.5% ..how many Republicans stayed home for Q because Capano showed how much Q was distancing himself from Trump??

    ReplyDelete
  51. oh yeah. Bob is a real player

    ReplyDelete
  52. If playing with yourself counts I agree with 2:25

    ReplyDelete
  53. Quaglione who???
    Malliotakis who???

    ReplyDelete
  54. To answer 2:59

    Quaglione 39%
    Malliotakis 29%
    Capano 1% the worlds biggest loser

    ReplyDelete
  55. Brannens total of barely reaching 50% was a sign of what a weak candidate he was. None of that will matter for the next eight years.

    ReplyDelete
  56. RESPONSE: THE "DUNKIN' VERSUS KRISPY KREME VERSUS CRAZY DONUTS VERSUS NO-NAME NEIGHBORHOOD DONUT SHOP" EDITION

    TO ALL TOO MANY OF MY LOYAL READERS --- AND TO A VERY CLEAR MAJORITY OF MY LATELY VERY SNARKY COMMENTERS TO THIS BLOG

    THE LOTS OF YOOZ- GUYS NEEDS TO SEES THE DIFFERENCES BETWEENS THE HOLES IN THE DONUTS AND THE WHOLES OF THE DONUTS --- OTHERWISE YOOZ FOLKS WON'T BE ENJOYIN' THE COMPLETE DONUT EXPERIENCE

    I don't want anybody to think for one second that I'm not a hole in the donut, the glass is half empty sort of guy, who believe that, at any one time, much more is going on under the table than on top of it --- or that all of those outlooks/ insights weren't proved out in the 2017 primary and general elections. Nonetheless, there is plenty of evidence to indicate that recent primary and general election go- arounds-come- arounds played out in obvious and predictable patterns.

    From very early on, Justin Brannan looked like he had the inside track in the race for the 43rd Count. DIst. seat being given up by his former-present-former ( btw, is it again "former" yet ???) boss Mr. Gentile --- and this blog repeatedly contained assertions to that effect. To the best of my failing powers of recollection, we at "Brooklyn... Fountainhead" NEVER said that we were "for" or "against" his tattooed immenseness; and when it was proven-out at the ballot box that The Incredible Bulk had been put into public office, we neither elevated nor denigrated that achievement in any way.

    All of the also-rans of all shapes and sizes, colors and stripes demonstrated a variety of achievements and failures along the way --- some in more obvious and flamboyant ways than others. John Quaglione came oh so close and yet remained oh so far. Liam put down his marker, but he even once agreed with me that 2017 had a real "last shot for Republicans" look to it. And as for Bob Capano, he basically underperformed from the beginning to the end --- but with equal validity, he remained a significant factor from the beginning to the end.

    For the most part, we have viewed the post-election commentary on this blog to have been overly aggressive, even hostile. And very little of it is really based upon solid facts. That bespeaks an over-emphasis, to the point of obsession, on the hole and not the donut. (Let's no forget, however, there are a universe of filled donuts, especially by the folks at Krispy Kreme, that contain internal holes that are not knowable except upon deeper intrusion and observation.)

    Without real facts, people are trying to make their donuts without the dough. That results in no donut; and that actually means no hole either.

    ReplyDelete
  57. Capano is being celebrated in many parts for helping to ensure Q did not win and therefore ending the Kassar patronage mill ends in Brooklyn next year when Marty loses.

    I hear Capano and the Reform Party has already met with Ross Barkan and Andrew Gournados..meanwhile Capano and his wife spends Thanksgiving in the Bahamas with John Cats...not too bad for 1%..

    ReplyDelete
  58. Bob Capano is an afterthought in Brooklyn politics and was never even known on Staten Island. Whether he is in the Bahamas or the Bronx he is probably trying to decide whether to give up the ruse that he ever moved back to Brooklyn. The contention that the Reform party will play a decisive role in any local races is laughable, it didn't play a role this year with Bob barely getting 1% of the vote while openly campaigning against John Q, the only person standing in the way of de Blasio puppet and cult follower Justin Brannan. Ross Barkan and Andrew Gounardes don't stand a chance against Marty Golden, Gounardes couldn't beat him in a Presidential year when Republicans stayed home and Marty barely campaigned, yet somehow things are going to be different this year because a handful of disgruntled Golden and Kassar haters are more vocal?
    Not happening.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Catsimatidis didn't fundraiser for Gourandos last time..

    ReplyDelete
  60. And Catsimatidis won't be fundraising for Andrew Jr Ross this time either. After backing Lhota in 2013, Golden and Kassar have become Cats errand boys catering to his very whim.

    ReplyDelete
  61. To all who participate I applaud gale for pointing out that comments of recent have been overly aggressive, and, I further agree that most comments have been outright hostile. Civility and restraint is what we in the GOP should strive for in the upcoming year. John Q's more than respectable showing should be a joyous occasion as it shows the GOP is still a competitive factor.

    I dont agree with gales observation about that fat fuck capano being anything more than a spoiler. No relevance. Just fat. And now I'm given a visual of bob rubbing sun tan lotion on castimides. Barf !!

    ReplyDelete
  62. Cats will support Marty..i hear Chairman Ghorra sees and speaks to John regularly..there is no news here..john has a better relationship with Ghorra than with Eaton today..john is not stupid, he know who has the power

    ReplyDelete
  63. The poster at 3:50 is either one of the hottest new comedians around or should really lay off that crack pipe. Cats would be hard pressed to remember who is Ghorra let alone have any kind of relationship with him. Ghorra has no power, he does exactly as Kassar tells him when he tells him and how he tells him. Funny thing is even Ted doesn't respect him but knows he has no choice but to take orders.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Ted is the go to guy. Only the disgruntled 2 or 3 Arnaldo followers would disagree.

    ReplyDelete
  65. Something that the Golden-Kassar crowd have to make up their collective minds about is whether Lucretia and Arnoldo have been marginalized or whether they remain large pebbles in the shoes of Kassar, Golden, and a few others lined up closely with them.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Lucretia makes bob look relevant

    ReplyDelete
  67. We will find out soon enough who Cats listens to..eaton or Ghorra...if Catsimatidis supports Golden it's Ghorra, if it's Gourandos or Barkan it's Eaton...my money is on Ghorra.

    ReplyDelete
  68. If Bob is so irrelevant why do you keep talking About him??

    ReplyDelete
  69. Bob, and I know that it's you, they keep taking about Lucretia and Arnaldo, too. The Brooklyn Republicans preserve the corpses of their internal foes the way the Commies used to preserve Stalin and Lenin.

    ReplyDelete
  70. The difference is Capano will be playing a major role in Brooklyn and NYC politics in the months and years ahead so I would not refer to him as a "corpse"...more to come!!
    Ahahah

    ReplyDelete
  71. Quaglione had the wind in his sails. he had name recognition from 2013 vs Gentile and his many years as a top aide to Golden; Quaglione also had a Democrat mayor who is universally hated and he had Nicole's ardent support deep in her own assembly district. yet, in spite of these tailwinds, Quaglione still couldn't put it together and he is now a two-time loser. Quaglione attempting to assign blame anywhere but to the man in the mirror would be the punchline of a bad joke

    ReplyDelete