Sunday, November 2, 2014

SPECIAL EBOLA UPDATE: THE “CDC AND OTHER EXPERTS DOUBLE TALK” EDITION


BASED ON THE MEDICINE AND BASED ON THE SCIENCE, SCIENTISTS AND MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS REALLY DON’T KNOW WHAT TO SAY ABOUT THE SPREAD OF EBOLA THROUGHOUT THE U.S. AND THE WORLD


BASICALLY, THE “SCIENTISTS” HAVE MADE “EDUCATED GUESSES”  —   SOME  SEE EVERY U.S. CITY AT RISK  —   SOME SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF APOCALYPTIC SCENARIOS  —   BUT IT’S OK,  THE CDC  DOESN’T THINK IT WILL BE THAT BAD



Everybody that cares about the social-political-governmental-medical-scientific response to the growing world-wide Ebola threat needs to read an AP article that has been picked up by ABC News and the Republican oriented blog Newsmax.

Here’s how the article kicks-off: “Top medical experts studying the spread of Ebola say the public should expect more cases to emerge in the United States by year's end as infected people arrive here from West Africa, including American doctors and nurses returning from the hot zone and people fleeing from the deadly disease. ***   But how many cases?  ***   No one knows for sure how many infections will emerge in the U.S. or anywhere else, but scientists have made educated guesses based on data models that weigh hundreds of variables, including daily new infections in West Africa, airline traffic worldwide and transmission possibilities....” (See “Scientists Try to Predict Number of US Ebola Cases” by Martha Mendoza/ AP National Writer, 11/1/14, ABC News [http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/scientists-predict-number-us-ebola-cases-26621993]; similar to article:  “How Many More US Ebola Cases? Predictions Vary Widely” source the AP, 11/2/14, Newsmax [http://www.newsmax.com/Health-News/ebola-prediction-US-cases/2014/11/02/id/604654/]).

That AP report said. “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention prefers not to focus on a particular number. But spokeswoman Barbara Reynolds said Ebola will not be a widespread threat as some outside the agency have warned. ***  ‘We're talking about clusters in some places but not outbreaks,’ she said. ***  The CDC is using modeling tools to work on projections in West Africa, but ‘there isn't enough data available in the U.S. to make it worthwhile to go through the exercise.’ ***   University of Texas integrative biology professor Lauren Ancel Meyers said there are inherent inconsistencies in forecasting ‘because the course of action we're taking today will impact what happens in the future.’...”

Quoted in the AP article is Northeastern University professor Alessandro Vespignani, who projected between one case - his most likely scenario - and a slim chance of as many as eight new cases in the U.S. though the end of November (other “experts” have a range between two [2] and over a hundred [100+] new Ebola cases in the U.S. by the end of the year).  However, one of Professor Vespignani’s  worst scenarios involves Ebola spreading unchecked across international borders outside of the United States. “‘My worry is that the epidemic might spill into other countries in Africa or the Middle East, and then India or China. That could be a totally different story for everybody," Vespignani said. ***  Dr. Ashish Jha, a Harvard University professor and director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, said he's not worried about a handful of new cases in the U.S. His greatest worry is if the disease goes from West Africa to India. ***   ‘If the infection starts spreading in Delhi or Mumbai, what are we going to do?’..."

When it comes to Ebola, stricter or looser quarantines or travel restrictions probably will make a difference for most Americans, who are now alive and healthy, both in the short and longer run. Contrary to anybody’s assertions in support-of or opposition-to such quarantines and/or travel restrictions, medical-scientific statistical predictive tools are not the best methodologies  to arrive at decisions on those matters on behalf of Americans, who are now alive and healthy.

6 comments:

  1. Now haven't you already been thoroughly chastened after your last go round on this Ebola matter? Must I do so again?

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  2. estimates are about 35,000 people die each year from the flu.

    2 people were killed by OJ.

    1 person died from ebola.

    My point is the sky hasn't fallen just yet.

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  3. OMG! SOmebody is poisoning orange juice? WAs it something that was given to children for tick or treat? What kind of sicko gives kids poisoned OJ for Halloween?

    IF Two were killed already, how many more are in danger?

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  4. Clearly, from these comments my voice of reason has prevailed. As a wise nun once said, "Keep slinging the mud. Eventually it will stick."

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  5. That is Dorthy for sure,
    1. She is clueless about the comments after Gail's stories and the who and why any of it gets said
    2. She is always with the nuns talk, whats up with that stuff allthe time
    3. She should know you hav to put the sick illegals in concetration camps and send them back where they came from for the good ofthe rest of us.

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  6. Update:

    Kaci Hickox today has reached the end of her 21 day period in which individuals exposed to Ebola are at risk of infecting others. Sadly, she is contemplating moving out of Maine due to its animosity toward her. I for one hope she finds a nice little place along Shore Road in Bay Ridge Brooklyn and moves there. The biking is excellent along the water and it would be an opportunity for Bay Ridgers to show their welcoming spirit and countermine all the negative publicity they are getting over their alleged mistreatment of the Muslim/Arab community. It could be a Gospel filled moment for Bay Ridge to embrace. Someone let the local pastor know.

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