Does Russ Gallo’s new blog show that he, himself, doesn’t want to be the primary candidate against State Senator Golden ?
How objective and reliable can any candidate’s own muck raking blog against his opponent be ?
Yesterday, I noted that there was what appeared to be a snarky new political blog by the Kings County Republican Party Secretary Russell Gallo, who has been a key player in the GOP blog wars over the last few years; and that the new blog is called "THE GOLDEN WATCHER" [http://thegoldenwatcher.blogspot.com/] (See Comment: “UPDATE: THE ‘THE MORE - THE MERRIER’ EDITION” by Galewyn Massey, 12/25/13 at 8:48 AM to Friday, December 20, 2013 post “WHAM ! GALLO MAKES ANNOUNCEMENT OF PRIMARY AGAINST GOLDEN” below on this blog).
The question arises — does this new venture tip Russ Gallo’s hand that he actually does not intend to pursue a Republican primary against State Senator Martin Golden as a candidate in his own right ?
Without any reference to his own possible candidacy, I have commented directly to Mr. Gallo that a stand alone vehicle like “The Golden Watcher” blog is an excellent tool to expose, delve into and critique State Senator Martin Golden; and if it’s done well, it could very well become something with real cred among other political bloggers and the press. The idea of a blog like "THE GOLDEN WATCHER" with its announced subject specialty “...what Marty doesn’t want you to see...” is both appropriate and timely on the eve of the 2014 election year for a Republican activist opposed to, or at very least quite critical of, the incumbent Brooklyn GOP state senator. According to Gallo’s own words, his new blog, “The Golden Watcher,” is intended to publish “... a true account of [Golden’s] record... for both his constituents and possible opponents...”
I suggest to you that such a remark strongly mitigates against any notion that Gallo will be contemporaneously a candidate for the same position as the one instantly held by Golden. Running an internet enterprise properly — both as a news source and as propaganda tool — requires a detachment that an active candidate for the same office as Golden’s patently would not possess.
What’s more, if Gallo does intend to pursue his own candidacy for the 22nd S.D., "THE GOLDEN WATCHER" would put somebody like Gallo more completely into his own media box than he has ever been with his prior blogging and other internet media exploits.. Nonetheless, all that has transpired indicates that being a media hound is a persona with which Gallo has been comfortable, both for launching his attacks and defending his own positions.
Im pretty sure he can chew gum, walk, blog, and run against Marty at the same time.
ReplyDeleteEnough of the blogs & Radio Free Europe.
ReplyDeleteOpening a campaign fund and raising money is a factor.
At this point its the only factor.
And please no pie in the sky talk of Gallo needing a million dollars to win.
It can be done with 20 or $30,000.
Cash and other assets are often a factor, but Neil Knox, then editor/publisher of The Shotgun News, told me that in 1994 an NRA-backed candidate defeated a long-time Texas Democrat Congressman in a very low $$$ primary; it was all about the assault weapons ban. That was among "...the exception that proves the rule" category of things.
Delete$20,000 to $30,000 can make it a real race, but not a winning race. What do you think, Marty will stand by and hand it over to some Tom, Dick or Russell for chump change, or a dollar and a dream ?
However, there is some number more than $30,000 and less than a million bucks that will give the challenger a real shot at winning --- let's not put too fine a point on what that number might be; the candidate has to open a campaign fund and start fundraising ASAP, whatever you raise, that has to be the number.
$30,000 to run a primary for senator? Maybe in Marty Golden's favorite decade, the 1950s. Gallo needs to get real. Add a zero to the end of that number.
ReplyDeleteThat would be one crooked number with five (5) nice round zeroes...
DeletePrimary Republican voters are few and far between in Brooklyn. $30,000 is almost enough to reach all of them several times...
DeleteYou clearly speak without any real knowledge of the the district, primary-voting Republicans, or the mechanics of modern campaigns. $30,000 barely covers petitioning, petition challenges, and a headquarters. Throw in another $50,000 to $75,000 for mail, and an additional $15,000 for some staff, posters, etc. Unless you plan on gathering your friends in the backyard to put on a campaign.
DeleteThe comment that follows is moved from below for clarity:
Delete"Anonymous December 26, 2013 at 8:23 PM
The comment above "You clearly speak without any real knowledge . ." does not sound like advice from someone who wants to bear Golden, it sounds like a political consultant looking to hustle a buck.
$30,000 for petitioning? This is a local race. Anything more than $5,000 is a waste.
$50,000 to $75,000 for direct mail? A Republican primary will have about 3000 to 3500 votes cast. Printing and postage for 4 mailings comes to about $6,000."
The $30,000 petitioning figure includes the cost of defending Gallo's signatures in Brooklyn Supreme Court, the Appellate Division and the State Court of Appeals. If you think Golden's Albany pals are letting Gallo get away without being put through the ringer, you are deluding yourself. They will force him to spend heavily in court, which means hiring a real election lawyer, not the freebie county lawyer Craig will offer Gallo.
DeleteIn terms of mail, the district has 32,000 Republicans. The last time an incumbent Republican Senator had a real primary, 6,000 Republicans voted, not 3,500. Now sure, you can do four mailings, but that's like taking a leak in the ocean. Do you want to win, or do you want to fuck around? You're running against an entrenched incumbent. Will 4 mailings dislodge him? Convince enough Republicans that he needs to be replaced? Not likely.
Figure one mailing to all 32,000 Republicans to cover yourself. That puts you on the map. Something like 8,000 of those Republicans have a history of voting in primaries, so at least 6 to 8 mailings to them, in order to make your case.
When all is said and done, that's about 100,000 pieces of mail. Depending on the economies of scale, printing and postage for those 100,000 pieces of mail is maybe 35 to 40 cents each. That's $35,000 to $45,000 for mail.
You need a headquarters. Rent and utilities in Bay Ridge is going to set you back at least $3,000 a month for 5 months. That's another $15,000.
You're at $90,000 so far.
Posters? Flyers? A decent website? A couple of newspaper ads? Some paid people to staff the headquarters? It all starts to add up.
Gallo -- or whomever the candidate is -- needs to understand the harsh economic realities of a serious campaign to oust an incumbent in a primary.
The only thing worse for Gallo than a consultant hustling a buck is free advice from people who don't know what they are doing: you get what you pay for.
So Craig's candidate spends $130,000. Marty turns around and drops $200,000 on the race.
Delete"Primary Republican voters are few and far between in Brooklyn. $30,000 is almost enough to reach all of them several times..."
Delete1. "Primary Republican voters are few and far between in Brooklyn. $30,000 is almost enough to reach all of them several times..." This statement is chilling. Imagine being told that we have almost enough fuel to take off and land safely.
2. A smart challenger knows he has to reach beyond the dependable prime voters and motivate other Republican voters to come out and vote.
You have never been on a winning campaign. Limited resources require prioritization. See you on the trail... or not....
DeleteYour analogy is flawed.
1. We have enough fuel to take off and land several times.
2. You reach out to voters who vote (prioritize). According to your logic Republicans should also mail to Democrats during a Republican Primary.
1. You can't be competitive, let alone win, unless you expand the pool of primary voting Republicans. Mailing to non-prime Republicans (who are eligible to vote) and convincing them to vote for your candidate is critical.
Delete2. Take off and land as often as you like; with your limited experience, you are still going nowhere.
Might not be a bad idea to go beyond the Republicans. You could run a very effective primary against Golden and lose narrowly, without Democrats and Independents ever hearing your (anti-Marty) message.
DeleteIf 35-40% of Republicans learn how much of a lefty Marty is then he will lose the General Election without Democrats turning on him.
DeleteNot if they find out he is a lefty from a clunky campaign run by middle-aged men acting like frat brothers pretending to be political consultants.
DeleteTime will tell. Let's see how things shape up.
DeleteGlad to see everybody is getting along so well...
DeleteGolden is salivating over this. Way to go, Gene.
Deletetry drooling. his days are numbered...
DeleteIt's early kids. The ppl who want to see a campaign account opened are the same who'll say he started too soon and make a fool of himself if Gallo decides not to run. Lets see what develops.
ReplyDeleteThis ain't black and white photography.... and it gets late early this time of year.
DeleteGallo has a shot at this. Remember Marty lost the area to newcomer, Andrew G so this is an open election for anyone. Marty doesn't have the same backing that he used to. Look what happened to all the candidates Golden tried to run including the former District Attorney - not one got a sizable amount of votes.
ReplyDeleteI'd give Gallo a million dollars to run if someone would just untie this straightjacket.
ReplyDeleteUPDATE & BACKFILL: THE “BEST THINGS IN LIFE ARE FREE” EDITION
ReplyDeleteI saw something familiar in the Eagle today and realized that I had reported on it about two weeks ago (See “State panel doles out $1 million in grants, Brooklyn benefits – Brooklyn Arts Council among recipients” by Paula Katinas, 12-26-13, Brooklyn Daily Eagle [http://www.brooklyneagle.com/articles/state-panel-doles-out-1-million-grants-brooklyn-benefits-2013-12-26-130000]; compare my 12/12/13 post below on this blog, “Either State Senator Golden — OR somebody on his staff — announced that the New York State Regional Economic Development Council awarded grants to support some Brooklyn projects”). Paula Katinas’ article in the Eagle is accompanied by a file photo of a smiling State Senator Golden and the caption “State Sen. Marty Golden is on the regional council.” The article that appeared in the Eagle is the direct result of the press release by Golden’s office, that I had posted about two weeks ago, with more than a little sacrine “reporting” by Paula Katinas.
This article didn’t cost State Senator Golden a dime; and any GOP primary voters who might read it get a very favorable impression of their incumbent GOP state senator. Articles like this one appear in the local press all the time. — Where is the comparable "free" piece of fluff about Russell Gallo or anybody else who might be thinking about running against Golden ?
How much would it cost a challenger to negate the effects of the repeated public exposure to reports like this one ? More than $20,000-$30,000, I would think.
Golden's government budget for district mailings alone is more than what Gallo's advisers are talking about spending.
DeleteHa!
DeleteFunny, but true.
Storobin will run with big Russian money behind him, that's the word in Manhattan Beach.
ReplyDeleteRun from what?
DeleteUPDATE: THE “JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT IT WAS S.A.F.E. TO GO BACK INTO THE WATER” EDITION
ReplyDelete“The Golden Watcher – Black Ops Command Center.What Marty Doesn’t Want You to See” Blog put out its first post earlier today (See “Golden’s Gun Grab” by Russell Gallo, 12/27/13, The Golden Watcher...What Marty Doesn’t Want You to See [Blog] [http://thegoldenwatcher.blogspot.com/2013/12/goldens-gun-grab.html#more]). The article provides a virtual compendium of the trails taken and travails endured in the passage of the NYS S.A.F.E. Act anti-gun law in the New York State Senate.
Needless to say, the focus of Gallo’s post is on Brooklyn’s only GOP State Senator Martin Golden, and the inconsistencies, illogic and insiders’ sensibilities expressed by Golden in his support of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s signature anti-gun measure.
OOPS ! The above briefly appeared with Gallo's first post entitled as follows: "See 'Golden's Gin Grab'...."
DeleteNow, that would have been really big news....
The question begs....
ReplyDeleteWill Gallo hire Ray and Georgea after he is elected?
There are only one or two Black Ops players in the Golden camp that might be considered for employment on the staff of a State Senator Russell Gallo.
DeletePerform a survey or research to test in the things which are actually appealing to your own recipients, before you deliver your Direct mail advertisingletter.
ReplyDelete