The Lhota Campaign is apparently completely without any traction whatsoever — current numbers show winning is impossible almost everywhere in New York City — especially here in Brooklyn
Expect defections from other candidates on the Lhota ticket
According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, “Democrat Bill deBlasio holds a commanding 44 percentage-point lead over Republican Joe Lhota in the race for New York City mayor, underscoring the GOP nominee's failure to gain any traction during the past three weeks, a poll from The Wall Street Journal-NBC 4 New York-Marist showed Thursday.... (See “De Blasio Has Wide Lead – Public Advocate Holds 44-Point Edge Against Joe Lhota in Race for Mayor of New York” by Michael Howard Saul, 10/10/13, WSJ [http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304066404579127701548615292.html]).
Of particular interest to those of us associated with the Republican Party was the following observation that was made in the WSJ article: “The poll raises questions about the effectiveness of Mr. Lhota's campaign because not much has changed since the last WSJ-NBC-Marist poll was released on Sept. 18, shortly after the primary. At that point, Mr. deBlasio was ahead by 43 percentage points....”
The demographic breakdown shows the hopelessness of the Lhota campaign going forward. The racial gap between these candidates is breathtaking. Among likely voters the results are as follows: among potential voters who call themselves “black,” deBlasio leads Lhota by a count of 89% to 4%; among Latinos voters deBlasio leads 76% to 14%; among likely voters that call themselves “white,” it’s 57% for deBlasio and 33% for Lhota. DeBlasio leads in nearly every other demographic breakdown, for example: among women it’s 69% for deBlasio to 22% for Lhota; among men it’s 65% for deBlasio to 24% for Lhota; Catholics polled 61% for deBlasio to 31% for Lhota; among Jews it’s 61% for deBlasio to 26% for deBlasio; and with Protestant voters it’s 77% for deBlasio to 14% for Lhota. Mr. deBlasio leads in every borough in the city, with the closest margin being in Queens and Staten Island where Lhota is only 39% behind (note it’s worse in Brooklyn).
The only remaining strategy for Lhota’s campaign is to attempt to dent deBlasio’s lead in any area or among any group – winning numbers are no longer in the cards.
As the Lhota "House of Cards" continues to collapse, there are others on his ticket who want to completely sever themselves from the Lhota Campaign in all respects. In Brooklyn, the GOP candidate for City Council in the 44th Council District has already done so.
A lot can change in a month.
ReplyDeleteWarren Willhelm was at 10% a month before primary.
I think you'll see a change in a week.
UPDATE: MORE BAD NEWS FOR LHOTA – FUNDRAISING CONTINUES TO LAG – REBNY WON’T MAKE LARGE DONATION TO LHOTA
ReplyDeleteThe president of the powerful Real Estate Board of New York, which spent almost five million dollars on its preferred City Council candidates this cycle, said recently that its board doesn't intend to do a similar independent expenditure to support Lhota in the general election (See “Real estate group doesn't fear de Blasio, won't spend for Lhota” by Sally Goldenberg, 10/10/13, This Is How New York Works - Capital [http://capitalnewyork.com/article/politics/2013/10/8534537/real-estate-group-doesnt-fear-de-blasio-wont-spend-lhota]). "There clearly are no plans and not even any discussion about any campaigning on behalf of anybody for mayor," said Steven Spinola, the REBNY president.
According to Ms. Goldenberg’s report in Capital. NY, “REBNY's decision is another financial blow for Lhota, who has struggled to convince some of his own donors that he's capable of overcoming de Blasio's 50-point lead in public polls. *** De Blasio raised more than twice as much as Lhota in the most recent fund-raising period, and Capital reported this week that a coalition of local unions is planning to spend $2 million in support of de Blasio's campaign.”
I think the money issue is irrelevant. Bloomberg spent 110 million dollars and won by 5% against Bill "Get along - go along" Thompson.
ReplyDeleteDo you really think Lhota would have a chance with 3 or 5 or 20 million dollars?
I think not.
Lhota made the mistake that Guiliani & Bloomberg dodged. Lhota took the Conservative party line. Thats the kiss of death.
It certainly looks that way....
DeleteThe Conservatives have been an empty barrel for Republicans for a long time. Lot's of noise, but no contents.